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Channel: epitomigm - Horseracing & Economics & Heuristics
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Silent Bird takes the Midnight Lute

 Kent Desourmaux wins with Silent Bird in the Midnight Lute at Santa Anita on Dec 30, 2017 Source: Eclipse[ARCADIA, CALIF.] -- It was the last weekend of the year of fake news but it was also the first...

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More memorable ones

Also, on last day of 2017, sharing a link to Pinterest page that highlights some of the exciting races of the year just past.

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Memorable horse races of 2017

By Jlvsclrk - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, LinkOn YouTube there is posted a collection of memorable races from the year just passed. The list starts off with the Bing Crosby Stakes at Delmar, and it is...

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ItsInThePost in the San Gabriel - Honest!

Tyler Baze aboard ItsInThePost (FR)On 6 January epiphany day at Santa Anita race track in Arcadia California, when much attention is focused on the Sham Stakes for newly minted 3 year olds,  we await...

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Sonneteer sings in Fifth Season at Oaklawn

Sonneteer training for 2017 Kentucky Derby. Source: Blood Horse“Forecasting is all about estimating the likelihood of something happening - From SuperforecastingLet's take a look back at the...

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Conquest Tsunami emergent from the ashes - Race 9 - Santa Anita, Jan 20 2018...

While in a waiting mode on a number of other interesting projects on my docket, I turned my attention to the 9th Race at Santa Anita -- an allowance style optional claimer with a purse of $80, 000 set...

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Gun Runner wins Pegasus World Cup - 2017

Gun Runner had plenty of gas in the tank as he triumphed in his last run at the Pegasus World Cup.  Courtesy: Cowboy Rex Tillerson. Jan 27 sees the second running of the Pegasus World Cup - at $16...

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Looking at the charts - Rollup of addendas

As an Feb 17 addenda - let's take a look at Matt Berneier and Dan Illman of the DRF looking at the runup to the race.Scanning other analysts' views is one of the traits of a superforecaster, per...

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Avery Island gains G3 Withers victory at Aqueduct

Sharing this here as an example of a rubric for analyzing Derby Trail 3-y-olds. The analysis is the work of David Aragona, who is the NY TimeformUS analyst for DRF.#3, BAL HARBOUR (6-1): Like Firenze...

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Wilbur Willard

Lillianhttp://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks11/1100651h.htmlWhat I always say is that Wilbur Willard is nothing but a very lucky guy, because what is it but luck that has been teetering along Forty-ninth...

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Say Om - in the Thunder Road

Cool for cats Robert Mitchum played the role of Junior Johnson in a film that has nothing to do with this stakes race as far as I know.On Feb 10, 2018, the $100,000 6-horse Thunder Road Stakes field is...

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Sixth Race Santa Anita March 4, 2018 - Play Hard To Get

Just a quick look at a point. Turf races are often paceless. This particular optional claimer seemed very much so. In this case - and it may be anomolous for all I know - the pacelessness was pointed....

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Synchrony clicks in FairGrounds Handicap

Synchrony clicks in FairGrounds HandicapThe FairGround in New Orleans sees a sunny day with temperatures in the '70s, on Feb 17. The denizens of The Place that Care Forgot go to the track for the Risen...

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It's Flamboyant in the San Francisco Mile at Golden Gate Fields

It had been a while for Flamboyant, but the 7-year-old passed the $1-million mark in earnings with a victory in the San Francisco Mile on Turf at Golden Gate Fields.Spring was in bloom and the  turf...

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Fire Away in the Danger's Hour Stakes, 2018

Fire Away is in the Red Hat and Black Silks running 6th at this point.“Often - remarkably good probability estimates arise from a remarkably crude series of assumptions.” - Excerpt From...

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Ramblings, and What a View The American, Race 8 at Santa Anita, April 2018

Had a chance recently to read some blog posts on machine learning exercises related to horse race handicapping.* It's a natural thing for grad students to do - search for a problem that may win friends...

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Heart to Heart in Makers Mile

Heart to Heart led all the way, winning The Makers Mile by 1 3/4 L.If your local weatherman tells you that there is a 40% chance of rain tomorrow one way to interpret that is that in 40% of his...

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This is tomorrow calling - Derby Prognistigator Function Call

Derby prognostications

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Justify this ... Black Swan with legs?

Before taking a page out of The Black Swan, a look at the 2017 Kentucky Derby, the most analyzed of races of the year. Then we will see what the Swan said.Let's look at the 2018 Kentucky Derby and...

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Happy Valley Triple Trio Tales in Business Week

Discussed here is Bill Benter - he of a fabled Hong Kong Happy Valley track betting syndicate - the one reputed to have made the - or one of the - biggest killings of all time, and then not cashed...

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