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The Fed wonk that saw the Black Swan
There's often somewhere someone who somehow saw a big slice of a black swan ahead of time. The rich's edge is to have subscription/journalist tracking arcane matters that show what is next. After the...
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Don't count on a soft landing, Mister!
Have shared the views of Randall W. Forsyth before. The Barrons’ editor and columnist has the job most every week to make sense of what’s going on. That being the job, it is pretty difficult not to get...
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Holy Macro!
Howard Marks 2024 letter makes some salient prescients on big stuff. He posits: "The investment environment in the coming years will feature higher interest rates than those we saw in 2009-21....
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Catalyst Call
Jeanna Smialek writing in NY Times Feb. 13, 2024 Inflation cooled less than expected in January and showed worrying staying power after volatile food and fuel costs were stripped out — a reminder that...
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Pulling Up The Transylvania Stakes
"Don’t drink too deep in Transylvanian taverns."– Jack Kerouac, NosferatuThere was a light mist over the treasured Kentucky bluegrass as the runners aligned to compete in the 35th running of the...
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Storyville: Streetwise and Pound Ezra
Hello everybody! Markets are much about which way the narrative is headed. In'vestors love to distill the bewildering variables that move practices and move prices around to a single narrative.' - that...
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Mystik Dan by a nose in 150th Kentucky Derby
[Dave Greening of DRF reporting provided some of this write-up] - May 4, 2024 - Louisville, Kentucky - Mystik Dan [#3], coming out of a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, needed every...
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How now Dow?
James McIntosh writes in the Wall Street Journal that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has underperformed the S&P 500 since the late 1970s and early 1980s, with a 30 percentage point gap in...
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Professorial
Horsefeathers!The Professor discusses the difference between the short run and the long run. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ClWPlrHsW0 In the long run we all die…oops, no, that’s Keynes.Wharton's...
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Don't speculate
"Futurists don’t know any more about the future than you or I. Read their magazines from a couple of years ago and you’ll see an endless parade of error." - Michael CrichtonFor more
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Able CEO traits
Many 'how-to measure a stock' stories tell you to form your estimate of how capable leadership is. As a guy that had many leaders in a long career it seems easier said than done. I had some great...
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Fed Watching is Tedium
Fed watching is tedium. The financial world argued and speculated and fixated. When would interest rates start going down again? Whatever leveraging ESP they had, they emitted.Then, last week, rates...
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You're not diversified if your comfortable with all your holdings
The late Peter Bernstein came up in a YouTube feed. He always had the ability to shock at the same time sounding sensible. In 2005 he spoke with Wealthtracker re disaster…the following is not quite...
View ArticleMIT Professor on How AI & LLMs are Shaping Financial Advice, Analysis, &...
Although he takes on too many questions, I am high on Prof Lo's take on LLMs.Predicting the market is the holy grail of AI in this culture. As Lo highlights, the ability of the AI to site anomalies is...
View ArticleDRF's 2024 Breeders' Cup Webinar with Andrew Beyer, Steven Crist, and Br...
Veteran predictors usually keep half-an-eye on other predictors. So, there is no surprise that the ranks of handicappers tune-in Breeders Cup Week to see what DRF’s Brad Free, Andy Beyers [emetrius]...
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Into or out-of the Mercky
The segment that covers pharmaceuticals is a hard one to understand. The complexity of drug discovery, the limited patent coverage, and the vagaries of demographics and diseases layer on the usual...
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Sachs of Gold, Man
Goldman Sachs looks at the landscape and tries to divine the path ahead for big cloud players. The capex imperative has been established. They have to be first in AI. So they have to spend, like the...
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Locked in the Cigar Mile - Last of the Year - Bonds Market Still A'Broil
The Cigar Mile at Aqueduct is noted here as no longer a Grade 1 but it remains significant. Punters had special interest in horses recently run in the Breeders Cup. But there were others of interest...
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The Ides of January 2025
Ben Carlson on Mega Cap World Domination: ... what’s an investor to do?One could make a strong case in either direction:Get the hell out of the mega cap tech stocks now! The valuations are too high and...
View Article“Rethinking Investing” – The Essence of Charley Ellis’ Legendary Advice
Charley Ellis on Consuelo Mack Wealthtrack:"What interest rate does it take to double? Take the 7%. Divide that into 72. Round it off if you want 2 to 10 every ten years doubles. So in ten years it...
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Trends of the month just past – February 2025
Baruch's Tool BoxIn February, consumer sentiment seemed to weaken. Consumers are the real driver of this country’s economy, so this seeming disillusion caused investor unease. Maybe even pulled some...
View ArticleOaktree's Howard Marks on Credit Yields, Trump's Tariffs
In the wake of Hoover-style tariffs thanks to the Don from Queens...MARKS observes: Credit yields have increased; for instance, high-yield bonds were yielding around 7.2% then and are now close to 8%,...
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