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Silent Bird takes the Midnight Lute

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 Kent Desourmaux wins with Silent Bird in the Midnight Lute
at Santa Anita on Dec 30, 2017 Source: Eclipse

[ARCADIA, CALIF.] -- It was the last weekend of the year of fake news but it was also the first weekend of the Santa Anita winter race meet. It was marked by several stakes including the Midnight Lute - a 7f Grade 3 named after a heck of a sprinter that won two Breeders Cup races for Bob Baffert in the oughts. Midnight Lute came out of Real Quiet and Fappiano, and his siblings or progeny (say, "Give Me the Lute") have been among my faves.

Baffert is at the center of this running the Midnight Lute as he brings Masochistic (4) to the post. This is a ultrafast 7-year-old that next week turns 8. This is his first run for Baffert after a somewhat confusing spell with Ron Ellis. Masochistic can be the fastest horse in the world, but sometimes he throws in oddball races, and he is getting older. He comes in off a long layoff, but Baffert is good in such cases.

If, as Tedlock generally notes, "the further we try to look into the future the harder it is to see.." then the converse may be true. That is: The further we look back, the less secure generally is the guidance to find.

Masochistic is not the favorite - that honor goes to Americanize (5), a white horse run by Simon Callahan. Mashochistic and Americanize loom as the bests in class in the race. The horse Americanize is favored, having won three out of four - the loss in that string was in the Cigar Mile where he briefly led at the 7f mark before tiring as being passed by a very sharp Sharp Azteca. He is a four-year-old - and has won two of eight in what may have been a tough campaign.

This race brings together a bunch of very evenly matched horses in terms of speed. Included are a couple of California horses that I have a warm spot for - Smoky Image and Ike Walker. Either would surprise as a winner, though they would not be surprising if they hit the board.

To some extent this race pits the class, versus horses that ran in the Cary Grant Stakes and Pat O'Brien Stakes - if it were just Cary Grant against Pat O'Brien I guess you'd expect the former to win in a spy flick and the latter in a football film.

Winners of the Cary Grant and Pat O'Brien (Edward Turned Right and Giant Expectations, respectively) looked sharp Tuesday as this meet opened, and horses in this one were in the mix at these earlier events.

Solid Wager (6), who won this race last year, but who is 0 for 8 this year, made an exceptional run late in the Cary Grant. But the horse ran in 5th  in the Pat OBrien, which may give weight to O'Brien stakes, and bode well for Mark Glatt's Silent Bird (1), who took third in that one.

On the other hand the more recent one has the more recency. In any case, Smoky Image (9) first off a layoff for Carla Gaines ran steadily in the Cary Grant. Judging the quality of the one race over the other - or throwing them both out - is the handicapper's chore.

Calculator (8)for hot Miller barn may be more relaxed after a difficult try in the Breeder's Cup Sprint. He gains Castellano as a pilot (this is verbatim nearly heist from DRF trackman verbiage).  He ran well in the Pat O'Brien. If Solid Wager beats us, and Calculator fails, we will be neither surprised nor happy.

One could anticipate a top Beyer of 98 winning, in a running of 1:15. Most of the horses can get that type of number on their best day - thought Masochistic and Americanize are capable of triple digit Beyers. But the two could end up in a pace duel as well, giving possible benefit to stalkers Silent Bird, Tough Sunday (7)  (who is here for second off a layoff - is fresh, with just one outing this year, which he doth wonneth) or Smoky Image.

With the horses matched so evenly, aside from the standouts Masochistic and Americanize, it seems much that it might be a jockey's race. There are some interesting pairings in that category here. Kent Desormeaux is having a good meet, and won yesterday, and is on Silent Bird today. Come from behind specialist Irad Ortiz (in town to ride Penjade in another event on the bill) is taking the reins of Ike Walker. And, a maybe hot maybe not, but certainly a hall-of famer,  Gary Stevens, returns on Smoky Image.

Let's figure this way -
1, 9 over 5, 7, 8 and 1, 9 - with a side bet of some kind including endearing stead 3.

--



So - surprise came by way of scratches of both Masochistic (4) and Smoky Image (9).  Which I only discovered as the horses were going to post parade. That caused some bet rejigger. Drop the 9, bring in the 6 (Solid Wager) into the "B's". Put a win bet on Silent Bird (1) , who went off at about 3-1.

The final results were 1-7-5-6. And very close.

Silent Bird won in a photo. With  Tough Sunday and Americanize quite near. The reported time for the Midnight Lute was 22.1 - 44.7 - 1:09.4 - 1:16.03. The Beyer was gauged at 98, just as anticipated.

Americanize was slow out of the gate. I am not disabused of notion that campaign has taken out some of his starch. But he showed grit, losing by only a head and a neck. After the slow break he was rushed up to the front. Silent Bird, son of Summer Bird, stalked - closely - much closer than I'd expected. Stalked Americanize and then took the lead at the half mile mark.

There was an odd bit at the top of the stretch when, as white stead Calculator looked to be finding an opening on the inside,  Desormeaux kind of ducked Bird toward the rail, maybe causing Calculator to lose momentum. Desormeaux made no bones about it in post race as described in HorseRacingNation. He was looking to take that spot from that horse. When races are this close, I have to think, the jockey's influence can be effective.

Tough Sunday stalked nicely throughout and was running gamely at the end of 7f. Tough Sunday, I learned after the race, is a very remarkable horse, having been born blind and deaf.

Again, a very close race - and much as predicted in the final order. Much as predicted except in race shape or final time. The exacta nicely paid $48 for $1.

Footnote: My immortal beloved Ike Walker (3) again proved to run poorly with stakes company, as compared with claiming and allowance efforts. Can't blame Irad Ortiz who won two other races on the card. - Racetrack Romeo.


Midnight Lute chart
- http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20171230&RN=8
Horse Racing Nation report - https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Summer_Bird_gives_Desormeaux_emotional_Midnight_Lute_Stakes_win_123

More memorable ones

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Also, on last day of 2017, sharing a link to Pinterest page that highlights some of the exciting races of the year just past.



Memorable horse races of 2017

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Gun Runner.jpg
By Jlvsclrk - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link
On YouTube there is posted a collection of memorable races from the year just passed. The list starts off with the Bing Crosby Stakes at Delmar, and it is memorable not so much for the winner as for the favorite - DeFrong, who ducks to an open fence at the break and unseats rider Mike Smith in a blink. Have included Arrogate's amazing recovery from botched start in the Dubai Cup. Great but that was it for winning for this winner of 2016's Travers and Classic (2016), who did not either achieve the status of "Man of War of the 21st Century" or surpass American Pharaoh's overall achievement, in my opinion but not that of others. There is Green Gratto, picked up and trained by a UPS delivery man, victorious in the Carter at 54-1 over Unify and Tommy Macho. There is Mike Smith's last-to-first ride on Abel Tasman in the Kentucky Oaks. Also a brief interview with Smith, who surpassed all records for dollar's won on the track this year; whenever he or any jockey speaks, you learn something, unlike other sports. There is Battle of Midway dueling with Sharp Azteca in the Breeders Dirt Mile.   There is horse of the year Gun Runner (shown above in 2016 picture) feeling his oats in the Woodward at Saratoga in August.  Highland Reel shows up in many dances across the globe, and wins for his last out in the Hong Kong Cup (as "Irish Eyes were smiling"). You will see Enable, the English filly in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - could easily have picked several of her other wins (most notably the Arc). The undefeated Aussie Winx is shown in the Cox Plate. Word is that the horse will travel some in 2018. I don’t show much from the Triple Crown. Just the Preakness that features a stunning speed duel between two-year old champ Classic Empire over Derby winner Always Dreaming - but that was the battle. The war was won in a mop up action by interloping Chad Brown's Cloud Computing. (My 3 year old favorites were Irish Rover and Classic Empire - neither won a jewel, tho both tried, with Classic Empire trying a bit more than anyone. Included too is the United Nations Stakes from Monmouth, where Jersey Joe Bravo took World Approval boldly up a fantastically unexpected opening.  Finally, I'd note the Breeder's Cup Distaff, one by Forever Unbridled, noted as such because it pretty much followed the script I pictured for it beforehand. That is the almost the biggest gas in horse racing for the handicapper in my opinion - to visualize it and see it transpire. Of course, greater than that is the heartfelt efforts of the horses and riders which sometimes literally take your breath away. Was some great racing from Woodbine that didn't get included. You see, tomorrow is calling.  - R.R.




ItsInThePost in the San Gabriel - Honest!

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Tyler Baze aboard ItsInThePost (FR)

On 6 January epiphany day at Santa Anita race track in Arcadia California, when much attention is focused on the Sham Stakes for newly minted 3 year olds,  we await the start of the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes at 1 1/8 mile on the turf. Most any red-blooded handicapper would get a kick out of taking a dive into the statistics that show the potential form of this race. So the analysis is on!

In terms of particular class, we have such as Flamboyant (FR) (1), a winner of $950,000, Isotherm, who has put $417,000 in the bank and ItsInThePost (FR) (8), who has won $735,000. Really, all the trainers of the combatants in this 10-horse field are top notch. In a way, it is Jerry Hollendorfer versus Richard Balthus, Carla Gaines versus Jeff Mullins, etc.

In terms of form, most of the horses have had similarly regular campaigns, and have run in the last four weeks or so - but there are a couple - Isotherm (6) and Free Rose (9) - coming off fairly long layoffs.

“Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person.” Excerpt From Superforecasting Philip E. Tetlock & Dan

Free Rose and ItsInThePost appeared to be the early speed, though Smoky Image (10) could be added to that phalanx. Less so Smoky, but they all seen pretty capable of carrying the speed. But Free Rose may be a little too fresh. ItsInThePost may have had a bit of a long campaign - but he has been off since the begging of November and, at that time, it was the Breeders Cup Turf, where he finished just 3 lengths off of as good a bunch as you will ever see (e.g., Talismanic, Beach Patrol, Highland Reel).

Those in this field are a pretty consistent lot - we don’t have a lot of time for this one so we will say "ItsInThePost" on top, with various below. The class summary, pace analysis, recency form and speed bode this way. The jockey could be important in this one, and it is fair to say that Tyler Baze has handled ItsInThePost well over some period of time. Maybe take a fly at some exactas with Free Rose on top too, as a gamble. The layoff is troubling, and his jockey, the courageous Raj Maragh, has yet to click since taking his tack to Southern California.

On the second tier of exactas? Flamboyant, Tequila Joe (5), Smoky Image, Isotherm. The latter two appearing particularly capable of placing or showing. Flamboyant has been a favorite of mine over time - he was my pick in the HolTrfCp 24 Nov - he often gets a piece, tho the running line has tended to have him angling or wide , while persevering, lately.

So what we got is 8, 9 over 1, 5, 6, 7, 10. And 8 to win on the side. A winning 100 Beyer seems possible.

This is the 71st running of the send Gabriel and I guess it's named after the San Gabriel Mountains which form such a hauntingly breathtaking backdrop to the races at Santa Anita in Arcadia, and the Rose Bowl and my darling wife's childhood home the next town over.




At the break, Smoky Image goes weirdly outside, that is keen to take the lead, with Free Rose closely involved, and ItsInThePost stalking comfortably, before making a run at it on the far turn. And the front runners variously fade. Flamboyant is coming along nicely at the end, but only to get second, with the 15-1 ML Editore (Brz) grabbing 3rd, as ItsInThePost (the 3-1 favorite) is victorious. That means two French horses were on top! Tyler said afterward he had looked at the Form and the pace set up exactly like he thought and he "rode accordingly".

The results: 8-1-2-10-6 - the $2 exacta pays $36. Beyer was 99.

Off a rest and looking to the future I think you could say both Isotherm and Free Rose made some impression. The bet was that Free Rose would surprise, but it was to turn out a gamble too far - it had been a significant layoff in fact - and it was Editore that surprised. -The Racetrack Romeo

San Gabriel Stakes 2017 chart

Sonneteer sings in Fifth Season at Oaklawn

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Sonneteer training for 2017 Kentucky Derby. Source: Blood Horse


“Forecasting is all about estimating the likelihood of something happening - From Superforecasting

Let's take a look back at the FifthSeason Stakes. The FifthSeason listed stakes marked the opening of the meet at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas on Jan. 12. It is a $125,000 race, and is run at 1 1/16 mile, for older horses.

The contenders are fairly similar in class, having generally failed to find much success at the stakes level. At the top of the class are C. Trout's Shotgun Kowboy (8), which has won $996K, Far Right (1)which was second in the 2015 Ark Derby here, Brad Cox's Dazzling Gem (9), which finished third to Creator in the 2016 Arkansas Derby,   Keith Desormeaux's Sonneteer (10) which finished second to Classic Empire in the 2017 Arkansas Derby, and Steve Asmussen's Untrapped (11), which finished sixth in that same race. Sonneteer and Untrapped went on to unspectacular Kentucky Derby bids. Untrapped looms the best of the lot based on his win in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby in September.

So the success or lack thereof is such that it is not that easy to dismiss other runners such as Wayne Catalono's Far Right on the far inside or Calumet Farm's Goats Town (6) for D Wayne Legendary Lukas in the middle.

Still, most of the horses have won at the distance at one time or another - that is excepting Chief Know It All (12), who has garnered a few stakes, StickyStatelyDude (5) - ridden by redoubtable Gary Stephens, who has big good bye, for now, to California - Royal Squeeze (7) and Entrapped and Sonneteer - the latter being a once promising horse, that took my money finishing up the track in the Derby in 2017, that is still eligible for non-winners of two).

In terms of form, all the horses ran last in late November or mid December. Dazzling Gem is running second time back after an extended time off. That he ran an 89 and lost by a head in last is worth noting.  Seven of the horses at least placed in their last, but they ran in everything from a $40k claimer - that is Royal Squeeze - to a G3 - that is Futile (2). The JAHawk Mrm at Remington is a race where three contestants met last : Dan the Go to Man (4) -  a pace threat, Dazzling Gem - in his first back - and Shotgun Kowboy.

There are some front runners here. That is 3, 4, 5, and 7. But they don’t look to me as tho they'd set fast fractions (let's guess at 24.5 and 1:12.4). Does it set up favorably for late runners 9, 10 and 11? We have said the late runners had a bit of a class edge.

Not to fault any of the riders but personally the only jock I can give special cred too is Gary Stevens but the distance is a question for StickstatelyDude, but he is a rested horse, has had some high Beyers speeds on occasion,and missed the 2016 Oklahoama Derby by half a length. He is running 2nd out Greg Burchell after leaving Kiaran McLaughlin stable.

Untrapped and Dazzling Gem seem to have class and upside if their jocks (Santana and Bridgmohan, respectively) can measure the time to move. As Untrapped beat Battle of Midway (who went from what may have been a tuneup to win the Breeder's Mile) gives him an edge, but slight tis.

The pace is hard to judge. 3, 4, and 8 out front early? There could be two duels, early and late. Since ChiefKnow It All (12) ran close to Untrapped in last he draws some interest among some punters at a price. The upfront speed could make it finally Sonneteer's day.. but I have been wrong before and Jockey JC McMahon is an unknown to me.

A 100 Beyer seems possible but less could win. A final time between 1:43 and 1:42 perhaps.  1, 9 and 11 seem like the fast ones to me. And it's a long time between drinks for the 1.

Sonneteer is slow, so let's say no. Let him beat me. Same for Far Right. We will take a stand with Untrapped and Dazzling Gem - and join them with some gambling on Chief Know It All and Sticksstatelydude. Something will happen, but what is it's likelihood?


I am talking about: 5-9-11-12 with 11 the most likely winner - and 9 the second most likely.



Well what do you know? It was Sonneteer's day. His turn. He's reached maturity. I said ''let him beat me.'' And he did. Ouch. Slow but steady. And quite a payoff for backers.

Trainer Desormeaux did not even venture out to Oaklawn for the run. His directions to Jockey McMahon: "Let him break and be a horse." It worked! (McMahon seemed in the postrace interview a thoughtful gentleman - and he won the following race at 9-1 to boot). I think the final time for the son of Midnight Lute was 1:44 and change..slower than I anticipated, with a final Beyer of 95 - Sonneteer's all-time best by more than a couple of ticks.. and in a neighborhood he hadnt known... since Oakland Park back in the early Spring. Boing!

The results: 10-2-1-11-9.


Yup, Sonneteer. A 30-1 shot - the 10-2 exacta paid $561.  Don’t even ask about the tri with plodding Far Right (25-1). Untrapped and Dazzling Gem made an exacta (both were about 2-1) but in the wrong part of the sequence. Perhaps the distance was not suitable for Untrapped. Perhaps Dazzling Gem bounced. My toss-ins (Chief and StickstatelyDude) failed to fire and finished up the track.

The outside posts seemed a little rough on Untrapped and Chief Know It All, but not Soneeter (remember the trainer's simple directions?), but the race ran a bit weirdly, in the sense that Untrapped and Dazzling Gem made lurching mid race runs forward - to no avail.  Their runs were both disappointing. Their form was not as good as anticipated. Moreover, Untrapped's Oklahoma Derby seems suspect. So does that JAHawk Mrm. Trainer Desormeaux had confidence Sonneteer would surpass Untrapped, as he had in the Arkansas Derby - dammed if he didnt!

What seemed unlikely -- and the payoffs agree -- that just happened. - Racetrack Romeo. 


Conquest Tsunami emergent from the ashes - Race 9 - Santa Anita, Jan 20 2018 - $80k OC

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While in a waiting mode on a number of other interesting projects on my docket, I turned my attention to the 9th Race at Santa Anita -- an allowance style optional claimer with a purse of $80, 000 set to go up at 4:42 pm Pacific Time on January 20.

"Superforecasters constantly look for other views they can synthesize into their own. There are many ways to obtain new perspecives. What are experts saying?  You can generate different perspectives..." Tedlock, Superforecasters.

This is one of those vaunted sprints on the Santa Anita downhill turf course. On this particular day, with the sun beginning to dive into the Pacific, golden through the starting gate as the horses and riders seriously gather.

A stakes preliminary to this optional claimer on that same course rightly has gained most of the national handicapper attention today. Reading David Lifton reminded me of how unique that course is, and that it should be among handicapper's considerations anytime the race goes on this particular course, which is oddly configured.

It starts down a hill, and requires runners to take a fairly sharp right hand turn before going into the first left hand turn. The result is such that the outside horse is initially the inside horse, and it guarantees a different bit of shuffling than is usual. Things get mixed up a bit more later on, as runners traverse a patch of dirt in the middle of the turf - as footing changes, again, there is a bit of shuffling in positions.

I am looking at three horses that would seem to have achieved on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. Anatolian Heat (1), one of two for Peter Miller, and Tribal Fighter (5) for Richard Balthus, clearly fit this bill - a fact not likely to be obscured from the betting public* - and Eric the Trojan (7) has come close. The distance is right for 1 and 5, it seems - tho I could be missing something here.

There is more than the downhill to factor, of course. We have a new horse from overseas - that is, Ronald R. Just joining the Simon Callaghan barn but offering very little in the way of data to go on. There is Conquest Tsunami, who had run with notable speedsters (including Canadian Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd) in Canada, and is now joining the Peter Miller barn. How Conquest Tsunami will run today is a guess. I will play him beneath. Conquest Tsunami could run a set up with Anatolian Heat.

The race is interesting as the trainer roster includes some everyday good level California trainers - and jocks. Peter Miller with Anatolian Heat and Conquest Tsunami. James Cassidy with Harbour Master. Doug O'Neill (whose barn seems to be emerging from a funks) with Semper Fortis, and Balthus, with Tribal Fighter, notably.

The class story in the race is mostly about horses that run together in these parts regularly and similarly. Semper Fortis (3) and Horse Greedy are notable exceptions. They both have run against exceptional stakes company - and both had to take long spell off, from which they are just returning. If long layoffs are a part of the analysis, you must think about passing on these.

Semper Fortis has been off for almost a year, has gained $436,000 in earnings. Has finished closed to Accelerator and Danzig Candy.

Getting back to the trainer litany: there’s James Cassidy, who looks like Victor McLaughlin and never surprises you when he wins at a long price. His Harbour Master (BR) (4)  is ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who is still riding exceptionally well. The horse may be stepping up a hair to this particular optional claiming stakes level.

Getting back to the jockey riffing:  There is Cory Nakatani, doing well, choosing probably as loyalty ot regular trainer, Tribal Fighter over Anatolian Heat which he piloted in its last out.

We expect some pace led by Conquest Tsunami, and Anatolian Heat and Horse Greedy. Don’t see exceptionally far back come-from-behinders - good idea in such a short sprint! The opening quarter could be between 21 and 22 and where it lands on that spectrum could decide the outcome or decide the possibilities for the come from behind and stalkers in the group.

High speed horse would be Eric the Trojan, that is speed overall, not early speed, who is a bit of a journeyman. Eric is just a little hard to go with, and has not won at this track or distance.

So we’re going here with 5 over 1, 4 and 6.

That is with 5/1 the most likely outcome. But also going with 5/4 and 5/6, because we have seen 6 run well with some good Canadians and because James Cassidy is such a character, and Kent has been riding well and the horse been steadily improving (and in his last race against a very tough field his saddle slipped and he was eased...)

Any day can be the day a horse wins its first on this course. But in the interest of falling probability, the handicapper follows the guide that the likeliest horses should have won or ran well on this surface. In Lifton's reminder he refers to Robert Quinn, one of the great teachers of handicapping principles, who devoted a chapter to this topic and this very course configuration. Here I will lightly leaven my forecast with this knowledge, gained from reading a perspective on another race. I don’t call myself ruled by the expert judge, instead I'd say I was guided by the useful heuristic.

Conquest Tsunami - survivor of San Luis Rey tragic fire. Source BloodHorse.

The results: 6-5-7-1-4.

Let me repeat: There is more than the downhill to factor, of course.  A useful heuristic can nip you in the butt. Conquest Tsunami won by a good margin (4 1/4 lengths).  Was true speed. We saw his potential as we had him underneath.. should a had him on top too! Touching story, cause the horse is out of the tragic recent San Luis Rey fires. After the race, the horse said that "rumors of my demise have proved exaggerated" ...)

The California horses, the most logical exacta happened, except Eric the Trojan snuck in there. [But honestly, Eric the Trojan made a great run - and he stepped down, ran as well on the downhill, and won Apr 26.]It could woulda been Tribal Fighter uber alle! - But for the Canadian horse with Baez in the pink silks riding. Closely together they are cropped in photo finish for place and show below.



Track caller and others held that Conquest Tsunami got a very easy lead - someone shoulda took him on. At 22 1/5 it was at the high end of the spectrum we anticipated. No matter, Conquest Tsunami had both speed and class and  first time on the the odd track was no problem. Obtained a 99 Beyer figure. One more heuristic: dont underestimate top class Canadians coming down this way - and dont overvalue the speed numbers that Calif. horses attain. Maybe it is a beautiful grotto the deserves consideration - it's not all she wrote.

- Racetrack Romeo

Look at the chart http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20180120&RN=9

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

*I have done a little searching and found some machine learning experiments using horse race handicapping as the corpus. (I've heard tell that Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace had turned their considerations in this direction when they were working on their differential . Also note early lineage of Totalizer.) As a domainist -- not a domain expert, mind you -- Racetrack Romeo was unsurprised to find out they could pick out the most likely winner - and lose money over the long haul. This is one of the essentials every horse player learns early. The conundrum comes in the quest to be likely but not too likely, to beat the wisdom of the crowd effect.

Gun Runner wins Pegasus World Cup - 2017

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Gun Runner had plenty of gas in the tank as he triumphed in his last run at the Pegasus World Cup. 
Courtesy: Cowboy Rex Tillerson. 

Jan 27 sees the second running of the Pegasus World Cup - at $16 million at Gulfstream Park, the richest race in the world. It has if nothing else invigorated the part of the season between the Breeders and the time when the Derby chase starts in earnest. It gives one last opportunity to horses headed for the breeding shed, such as newly minted Horse of the Year GUN RUNNER (11) and STELLAR WIND (3).  (They wont necessarily shack up together, but it is a thought.)  

The race is led by a formation of achievers with pretty well verified class. Let's start with them.

WESTCOAST (2) - a 4-y-o Bob Baffert charge that is  2:2 at the distance. He's seen as somewhat comparable to Baffert's winner here last year, Arrogate, having won the Travers, young but still growing.  A steady runner. Liked by Andy Sterling, Richard Migliore, Dan Illman. The Three Wise Guys. Will Baffert send WEST COAST or his other entry, COLLECTED (4)?  Both will probably stalk, but with marked speed and closely. Will any of these horses look to block or stymie favorite Gun Runner, who has a 7-5-1-0 lifetime mark at this distance, and who crushed in the Breeders Cup? That's an interesting question too.

STELLAR WIND - a Mare of great accomplishment - not the speed of the boys, but not too far off in my accounting. Making a brief visit to the Chad Brown barn before retiring. A steady performer. Easy to add to exotics. Ran poorly in the Breeders - so form is in question - making the switch to Brown even more intriguing. Has not won at this distance. Could stalk lithely. A vote for Stellar Wind is a vote for Girl Power and a beautiful runner. 

SHARP AZTECA (4) - A male, but also a beauty, training tremendously, and off a sharp Cigar Mile. The race is expected to have plenty of contested speed, but Sharp A, unproven at this distance, is the one expected to blast to the front, to be taken on by Gun Runner, and ere long by West Coast and ... Collected, a top California runner. Has run quite close to Gun Runner,  who has drawn what is universally being called an unfortunate outside post - due to the track configuration, which starts very near the first turn.

“All models are wrong,” the statistician George Box observed, “but some are useful.” - From Superforecasting. 

Looking at last year's break from the outside I dont see trouble for Gun Runner with the first turn. He will make it easily. He hasnt run since the Breeders (nor has West Coast) and he should have more gas in the tank than Sharp Azteca or Collected, over the long haul, which have both run since that event. Is Coast as good at this point as Arrogate was a year ago? A fair bet would be 'no.'

Among horses with less confirmed class, that could benefit from fast pace,  Seeking the Soul (11) draws my interest. This is a step into the top ranks, granted. And,  I wouldnt want to be too swayed by his win in the Clark, though it wasnt a bad bunch he bested that day. But he is 2 for 5 at the distance, has been in good form, and there is nothing wrong with his speed.

Now let's note the horses we will basically overlook - admitting that there is merit among them: War Story (very often is in the mix), Fear the Cowboy ( Harlan Holiday winner could be coming into form), Gunnevera (could thrive off the pace), Singing Bullet (Dale Romans can't be ignored), Toast of New York (is rested after three years off), Giant Expectations (experimenting at a new distance), and others.

The operative model here is that the conflict of speed will wear on the early pace setters, except for Gun Runner, who will prove much the best. But we will also cover for the other instance - that all pace setters will falter; making what one would call a small play against the class, and trying out a long shot. And we will see if the model is wrong, useful or what.

Let's go with  10 over 2, 5 - selecting the likeliest winner and two of 3 likely top class competitors) and 11 over 3,7, 10  and 10 over 11 (all of which is less likely, but more potentially lucrative- famous last words).


Let's start with the end point. Gun Runner was much the best - went out as champion. Had no trouble with the far post or the break. He tracked a leading Collected, as Sharp Azteca did not seem to fire. Collected was finished at the far turn - and it became a two-horse race, with Gun Runner never threatened by West Coast, and these two far, far ahead of the rest of the field.

The result: 10-2-6-7.

Not much to be said about Seeking the Soul (was outclassed, me thought, tho trackman nicely adjudged he was forced four-out at head of stretch, ran evenly while not gaining any particular ground), or Stellar Wind (who was rather buffeted by the boys). Locals Gunnevera got up for a spot, as did Fear the Cowboy.

An interview before the race with Sharp Azteca's owner was a bit odd. He let that the horse had run progressively faster fractions in training and perhaps didnt need the front and could hold the four spot into the first turn (and thus force Gun Runner out wider)  and taking on Irad Ortiz (known as a come from behind specialist) as jockey was part of all this - if that was the strategy, they might want to file it back under 'it dont work.'

A great race to anticipate, and watch. If nothing else, the construction of the model stopped time for 1:47 2/5 sec. A $17 return on $12 bet helps defray the horse player's cost of ginger ale and the Daily Racing Form. 

(While we will continue to follow the action, with some slight miscellaneous exceptions, this blog will be taking a sojourn - grabbing the baton again later in the season. As our morning- and evening-line favorite Harvey Pack would say: "May the horse be with you.")-Racetrack Romeo Capulette

Chart: http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20180127&RN=12


Looking at the charts - Rollup of addendas

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As an Feb 17 addenda - let's take a look at Matt Berneier and Dan Illman of the DRF looking at the runup to the race.




Scanning other analysts' views is one of the traits of a superforecaster, per Tedlock. It is tough though. I have seen correct analysis rendered asunder by last minute switches based on experts' views. You find yourself when forecasting or handicapping, creating a set of guides based on a belief set. But the actual belief set is something you have to continually test against reality. Or revisit. In this case, the DRF boys were more right than I was. I shouldnt blow up my heuristic, which I am trying to developer I imagine along the lines that they have pursued, but I should be ready to tune it.
of the topic space of Epitomime I saw a brief article that led me to addend this passage. "One Question Investors Should Ask Now and Then-The answer might reveal flaws in your thought processes." by Barry Ritholtz on Business Week.

How committed are you to a belief system? Answering that question has the potential to reveal flaws in our thought processes about many things, from politics to economics to cultural issues. Whether you are committed to one big idea, or are fascinated by a variety of things might also determine how successful you are as an investor.

He refers to Superforecasting in the story, cause review of tenets is one of Superforecasting's Commandments.  Rithotz has a kind of neat blog.

Avery Island gains G3 Withers victory at Aqueduct

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Sharing this here as an example of a rubric for analyzing Derby Trail 3-y-olds. The analysis is the work of David Aragona, who is the NY TimeformUS analyst for DRF.

#3, BAL HARBOUR (6-1): Like Firenze Fire, [Look at 2 year-old campaign] he was a precocious 2-year-old that won early in his juvenile season racing over sprint distances. [Has he handled longer distances?] He handled the stretch-out to a mile late last year, but still must prove that he can be as effective going this longer distance around two turns.[What can be said about horse's pedigree?] I find it doubtful given his pedigree. First Samurai is a dubious stamina influence, and his female family is littered with sprint influences. His dam herself was a six-furlong specialist who won a minor stakes going that distance. His best half-sibling, Charleymillionaire, was also best at sprint distances, placing in a pair of stakes races at six furlongs. {Summary analysis] I admire this colt’s consistency, but I think he’s in the wrong spot this time. 

His pick was most everybody's favorite #4 Avery Island - which he would take at the morning line price of 8-5 or above. The horse won.. going off at 41 less than that. He and others correctly noted that Firenze Fire #1 was likely to have trouble with the distance - the horse, appearing smaller than the others, tried gamely. [FF beat both Good Magic and Enticed (who was flat in his 3 y o debut Sat.)] Bal Harbour was an up the track disappointment that folded at 3/4s mark. Aragona's take on the winner Avery Island was more about what he'd done in recent races than it was about the rubric:  He'd showed good form vs. moderate paces over speed-favoring tracks in his maiden win and in the Nashua. And last time out in the Remsen, rating off the pace before finishing a strong second to James Carroll's Catholic Boy.

Highlighting and annotating the rubric:
 1- Look at 2 year-old campaign
 2- Ask how horse has handled longer distances. 

 3- Consider the horse's pedigree - This would take far more time than I could devote. As a result I will have to take an expert's analysis on this.
4- Summary analysis

Wilbur Willard

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Lillian


What I always say is that Wilbur Willard is nothing but a very lucky guy, because what is it but luck that has been teetering along Forty-ninth Street one cold snowy morning when Lillian is merowing around the sidewalk looking for her mamma?
And what is it but luck that has Wilbur Willard all mulled up to a million, what with him having been sitting out a few seidels of Scotch with a friend by the name of Haggerty in an apartment over in Fifty-ninth Street? Because if Wilbur Willard is not mulled up he will see Lillian as nothing but a little black cat, and give her plenty of room, for everybody knows that black cats are terribly bad luck, even when they are only kittens.
But being mulled up like I tell you, things look very different to Wilbur Willard, and he does not see Lillian as a little black kitten scrabbling around in the snow. He sees a beautiful leopard, because a copper by the name of O'Hara, who is walking past about then, and who knows Wilbur Willard, hears him say:
'Oh, you beautiful leopard!'
The copper takes a quick peek himself, because he does not wish any leopards running around his beat, it being against the law, but all he sees, as he tells me afterwards, is this rumpot ham, Wilbur Willard, picking up a scrawny little black kitten and shoving it in his overcoat pocket, and he also hears Wilbur say:
'Your name is Lillian.'
Then Wilbur teeters on up to his room on the top floor of an old fleabag in Eighth Avenue that is called the Hotel de Brussels, where he lives quite a while, because the management does not mind actors, the management of the Hotel de Brussels being very broad-minded, indeed.
There is some complaint this same morning from one of Wilbur's neighbours, an old burlesque doll by the name of Minnie Madigan, who is not working since Abraham Lincoln is assassinated, because she hears Wilbur going on in his room about a beautiful leopard, and calls up the clerk to say that an hotel which allows wild animals is not respectable. But the clerk looks in on Wilbur and finds him playing with nothing but a harmless-looking little black kitten, and nothing comes of the old doll's beef, especially as nobody ever claims the Hotel de Brussels is respectable anyway, or at least not much.
Of course when Wilbur comes out from under the ether next afternoon he can see Lillian is not a leopard, and in fact Wilbur is quite astonished to find himself in bed with a little black kitten, because it seems Lillian is sleeping on Wilbur's chest to keep warm. At first Wilbur does not believe what he sees, and puts it down to Haggerty's Scotch, but finally he is convinced, and so he puts Lillian in his pocket, and takes her over to the Hot Box night club and gives her some milk, of which it seems Lillian is very fond.
Now where Lillian comes from in the first place of course nobody knows. The chances are somebody chucks her out of a window into the snow, because people are always chucking kittens, and one thing and another, out of windows in New York. In fact, if there is one thing this town has plenty of, it is kittens, which finally grow up to be cats, and go snooping around ash cans, and merowing on roofs, and keeping people from sleeping good.
Personally, I have no use for cats, including kittens, because I never see one that has any too much sense, although I know a guy by the name of Pussy McGuire who makes a first-rate living doing nothing but stealing cats, and sometimes dogs, and selling them to old dolls who like such things for company. But Pussy only steals Persian and Angora cats, which are very fine cats, and of course Lillian is no such cat as this. Lillian is nothing but a black cat, and nobody will give you a dime a dozen for black cats in this town, as they are generally regarded as very bad jinxes.
Furthermore, it comes out in a few weeks that Wilbur Willard can just as well name her Herman, or Sidney, as not, but Wilbur sticks to Lillian, because this is the name of his partner when he is in vaudeville years ago. He often tells me about Lillian Withington when he is mulled up, which is more often than somewhat, for Wilbur is a great hand for drinking Scotch, or rye, or bourbon, or gin, or whatever else there is around for drinking, except water. In fact, Wilbur Willard is a high-class drinking man, and it does no good to tell him it is against the law to drink in this country, because it only makes him mad, and he says to the dickens with the law, only Wilbur Willard uses a much rougher word than dickens.
'She is like a beautiful leopard,' Wilbur says to me about Lillian Withington. 'Black-haired, and black-eyed, and all ripply, like a leopard I see in an animal act on the same bill at the Palace with us once. We are headliners then,' he says, 'Willard and Withington, the best singing and dancing act in the country.
'I pick her up in San Antonia, which is a spot in Texas,' Wilbur says. 'She is not long out of a convent, and I just lose my old partner, Mary McGee, who ups and dies on me of pneumonia down there. Lillian wishes to go on the stage, and joins out with me. A natural-born actress with a great voice. But like a leopard,' Wilbur says. 'Like a leopard. There is cat in her, no doubt of this, and cats and women are both ungrateful. I love Lillian Withington. I wish to marry her. But she is cold to me. She says she is not going to follow the stage all her life. She says she wishes money, and luxury, and a fine home and of course a guy like me cannot give a doll such things.
'I wait on her hand and foot,' Wilbur says. 'I am her slave. There is nothing I will not do for her. Then one day she walks in on me in Boston very cool and says she is quitting me. She says she is marrying a rich guy there. Well, naturally it busts up the act and I never have the heart to look for another partner, and then I get to belting that old black bottle around, and now what am I but a cabaret performer?'
Then sometimes he will bust out crying, and sometimes I will cry with him, although the way I look at it, Wilbur gets a pretty fair break, at that, in getting rid of a doll who wishes things he cannot give her. Many a guy in this town is tangled up with a doll who wishes things he cannot give her, but who keeps him tangled up just the same and busting himself trying to keep her quiet.
Wilbur makes pretty fair money as an entertainer in the Hot Box, though he spends most of it for Scotch, and he is not a bad entertainer, either. I often go to the Hot Box when I am feeling blue to hear him sing Melancholy Baby, and Moonshine Valley and other sad songs which break my heart. Personally, I do not see why any doll cannot love Wilbur, especially if they listen to him sing such songs as Melancholy Baby when he is mulled up good, because he is a tall, nice-looking guy with long eyelashes, and sleepy brown eyes, and his voice has a low moaning sound that usually goes very big with the dolls. In fact, many a doll does do some pitching to Wilbur when he is singing in the Hot Box, but somehow Wilbur never gives them a tumble, which I suppose is because he is thinking only of Lillian Withington.
Well, after he gets Lillian, the black kitten, Wilbur seems to find a new interest in life, and Lillian turns out to be right cute, and not bad-looking after Wilbur gets her fed up good. She is blacker than a yard up a chimney, with not a white spot on her, and she grows so fast that by and by Wilbur cannot carry her in his pocket any more, so he puts a collar on her and leads her round. So Lillian becomes very well known on Broadway, what with Wilbur taking her many places, and finally she does not even have to be led around by Wilbur, but follows him like a pooch. And in all the Roaring Forties there is no pooch that cares to have any truck with Lillian, for she will leap aboard them quicker than you can say scat, and scratch and bite them until they are very glad indeed to get away from her.
But of course the pooches in the Forties are mainly nothing but Chows, and Pekes, and Poms, or little woolly white poodles, which are led around by blonde dolls, and are not fit to take their own part against a smart cat. In fact, Wilbur Willard is finally not on speaking terms with any doll that owns a pooch between Times Square and Columbus Circle, and they are all hoping that both Wilbur and Lillian will go lay down and die somewhere. Furthermore, Wilbur has a couple of battles with guys who also belong to the dolls, but Wilbur is no sucker in a battle if he is not mulled up too much and leg-weary.
After he is through entertaining people in the Hot Box, Wilbur generally goes around to any speakeasies which may still be open, and does a little off-hand drinking on top of what he already drinks down in the Hot Box, which is plenty, and although it is considered very risky in this town to mix Hot Box liquor with any other, it never seems to bother Wilbur. Along towards daylight he takes a couple of bottles of Scotch over to his room in the Hotel de Brussels and uses them for a nightcap, so by the time Wilbur Willard is ready to slide off to sleep he has plenty of liquor of one kind and another inside him, and he sleeps pretty.
Of course nobody on Broadway blames Wilbur so very much for being such a rumpot, because they know about him loving Lillian Withington, and losing her, and it is considered a reasonable excuse in this town for a guy to do some drinking when he loses a doll, which is why there is so much drinking here, but it is a mystery to one and all how Wilbur stands off all this liquor without croaking. The cemeteries are full of guys who do a lot less drinking than Wilbur, but he never even seems to feel extra tough, or if he does he keeps it to himself and does not go around saying it is the kind of liquor you get nowadays.
He costs some of the boys around Mindy's plenty of dough one winter, because he starts in doing most of his drinking after hours in Good Time Charley's speakeasy, and the boys lay a price of four to one against him lasting until spring, never figuring a guy can drink very much of Good Time Charley's liquor and keep on living. But Wilbur Willard does it just the same, so everybody says the guy is naturally superhuman, and lets it go at that.
Sometimes Wilbur drops into Mindy's with Lillian following him on the look-out for pooches, or riding on his shoulder if the weather is bad, and the two of them will sit with us for hours chewing the rag about one thing and another. At such times Wilbur generally has a bottle on his hip and takes a shot now and then, but of course this does not come under the head of serious drinking with him. When Lillian is with Wilbur she always lays as close to him as she can get and anybody can see that she seems to be very fond of Wilbur, and that he is very fond of her, although he sometimes forgets himself and speaks of her as a beautiful leopard. But of course this is only a slip of the tongue, and anyway if Wilbur gets any pleasure out of thinking Lillian is a leopard, it is nobody's business but his own.
'I suppose she will run away from me some day,' Wilbur says, running his hand over Lillian's back until her fur crackles. 'Yes, although I give her plenty of liver and catnip, and one thing and another, and all my affection, she will probably give me the shake. Cats are like women, and women are like cats. They are both very ungrateful.'
'They are both generally bad luck,' Big Nig, the crap shooter, says. 'Especially cats, and most especially black cats.'
Many other guys tell Wilbur about black cats being bad luck, and advise him to slip Lillian into the North River some night with a sinker on her, but Wilbur claims he already has all the bad luck in the world when he loses Lillian Withington, and that Lillian, the cat, cannot make it any worse, so he goes on taking extra good care of her, and Lillian goes on getting bigger and bigger, until I commence thinking maybe there is some St. Bernard in her.
Finally I commence to notice something funny about Lillian. Sometimes she will be acting very loving towards Wilbur, and then again she will be very unfriendly to him, and will spit at him, and snatch at him with her claws, very hostile. It seems to me that she is all right when Willard is mulled up, but is as sad and fretful as he is himself when he is only a little bit mulled. And when Lillian is sad and fretful she makes it very tough indeed on the pooches in the neighbourhood of the Brussels.
In fact, Lillian takes to pooch-hunting, sneaking off when Wilbur is getting his rest, and running pooches bow-legged, especially when she finds one that is not on a leash. A loose pooch is just naturally cherry pie for Lillian.
Well, of course, this causes great indignation among the dolls who own the pooches, particularly when Lillian comes home one day carrying a Peke as big as she is herself by the scruff of the neck, and with a very excited blonde doll following her and yelling bloody murder outside Wilbur Willard's door when Lillian pops into Wilbur's room through a hole he cuts in the door for her, still lugging the Peke. But it seems that instead of being mad at Lillian and giving her a pasting for such goings on, Wilbur is somewhat pleased, because he happens to be still in a fog when Lillian arrives with the Peke, and is thinking of Lillian as a beautiful leopard.
'Why,' Wilbur says, 'this is devotion, indeed. My beautiful leopard goes off into the jungle and fetches me an antelope for dinner.'
Now of course there is no sense whatever to this, because a Peke is certainly not anything like an antelope, but the blonde doll outside Wilbur's door hears Wilbur mumble, and gets the idea that he is going to eat her Peke for dinner and the squawk she puts up is very terrible. There is plenty of trouble around the Brussels in chilling the blonde doll's beef over Lillian snagging her Peke, and what is more the blonde doll's ever-loving guy, who turns out to be a tough Ginney bootlegger by the name of Gregorio, shows up at the Hot Box the next night and wishes to put the slug on Wilbur Willard.
But Wilbur rounds him up with a few drinks and by singing Melancholy Baby to him, and before he leaves the Ginney gets very sentimental towards Wilbur, and Lillian, too, and wishes to give Wilbur five bucks to let Lillian grab the Peke again, if Lillian will promise not to bring it back. It seems Gregorio does not really care for the Peke, and is only acting quarrelsome to please the blonde doll and make her think he loves her dearly.
But I can see Lillian is having different moods, and finally I ask Wilbur if he notices it.
'Yes,' he says, very sad, 'I do not seem to be holding her love. She is getting very fickle. A guy moves on to my floor at the Brussels the other day with a little boy, and Lillian becomes very fond of this kid at once. In fact, they are great friends. Ah, well,' Wilbur says, 'cats are like women. Their affection does not last.'
I happen to go over to the Brussels a few days later to explain to a guy by the name of Crutchy, who lives on the same floor as Wilbur Willard, that some of our citizens do not like his face and that it may be a good idea for him to leave town, especially if he insists on bringing ale into their territory, and I see Lillian out in the hall with a youngster which I judge is the kid Wilbur is talking about. This kid is maybe three years old, and very cute, what with black hair, and black eyes, and he is woolling Lillian around the hall in a way that is most surprising, for Lillian is not such a cat as will stand for much woolling around, not even from Wilbur Willard.
I am wondering how anybody comes to take such a kid to a joint like the Brussels, but I figure it is some actor's kid, and that maybe there is no mamma for it. Later I am talking to Wilbur about this, and he says:
'Well, if the kid's old man is an actor, he is not working at it. He sticks close to his room all the time, and he does not allow the kid to go anywhere but in the hall, and I feel sorry for the little guy, which is why I allow Lillian to play with him.'
Now it comes on a very cold spell, and a bunch of us are sitting in Mindy's along towards five o'clock in the morning when we hear Lillian fire engines going past. By and by in comes a guy by the name of Kansas, who is named Kansas because he comes from Kansas, and who is a crap shooter by trade.
'The old Brussels is on fire,' this guy Kansas says.
'She is always on fire,' Big Nig says, meaning there is always plenty of hot stuff going on around the Brussels.
About this time who walks in but Wilbur Willard, and anybody can see he is just naturally floating. The chances are he comes from Good Time Charley's, and he is certainly carrying plenty of pressure. I never see Wilbur Willard mulled up more. He does not have Lillian with him, but then he never takes Lillian to Good Time Charley's, because Charley hates cats.
'Hey, Wilbur,' Big Nig says, 'your joint, the Brussels, is on fire.'
'Well,' Wilbur says, 'I am a little firefly, and I need a light. Let us go where there is fire.'
The Brussels is only a few blocks from Mindy's, and there is nothing else to do just then, so some of us walk over to Eighth Avenue with Wilbur teetering along ahead of us. The old shack is certainly roaring good when we get in sight of it, and the firemen are tossing water into it, and the coppers have the fire lines out to keep the crowd back, although there is not much of a crowd at such an hour in the morning.
'Is it not beautiful?' Wilbur Willard says, looking up at the flames. 'Is it not like a fairy palace all lighted up this way?'
You see, Wilbur does not realize the joint is on fire, although guys and dolls are running out of it every which way, most of them half dressed, or not dressed at all, and the firemen are getting out the life nets in case anybody wishes to hop out of the windows.
'It is certainly beautiful,' Wilbur says. 'I must get Lillian so she can see this.'
And before anybody has time to think, there is Wilbur Willard walking into the front door of the Brussels as if nothing happens. The firemen and the coppers are so astonished all they can do is holler at Wilbur, but he pays no attention whatever. Well, naturally everybody figures Wilbur is a gone gosling, but in about ten minutes he comes walking out of this same door through the fire and smoke as cool as you please, and he has Lillian in his arms.
'You know,' Wilbur says, coming over to where we are standing with our eyes popping out, 'I have to walk all the way up to my floor because the elevators seem to be out of commission. The service is getting terrible in this hotel. I will certainly make a strong beef to the management about it as soon as I pay something on my account.'
Then what happens but Lillian lets out a big mer-ow, and hops out of Wilbur's arms and skips past the coppers and the firemen with her, back all humped up, and the next thing anybody knows she is tearing through the front door of the old hotel and making plenty of speed.
'Well, well,' Wilbur says, looking much surprised, 'there goes Lillian.'
And what does this daffy Wilbur Willard do but turn and go marching back into the Brussels again, and by this time the smoke is pouring out of the front doors so thick he is out of sight in a second. Naturally he takes the coppers and firemen by surprise, because they are not used to guys walking in and out of fires on them.
This time anybody standing around will lay you plenty of odds, two and a half and maybe three to one that Wilbur never shows up again, because the old Brussels is now just popping with fire and smoke from the lower windows, although there does not seem to be quite so much fire in the upper story. Everybody seems to be out of the joint, and even the firemen are fighting the blaze from the outside because the Brussels is so old and ramshackly there is no sense in them risking the floors.
I mean everybody is out of the joint except Wilbur Willard and Lillian, and we figure they are getting a good frying somewhere inside, although Feet Samuels is around offering to take thirteen to five for a few small bets that Lillian comes out okay, because Feet claims that a cat has nine lives and that is a fair bet at the price.
Well, up comes a swell-looking doll all heated up about something and pushing and clawing her way through the crowd up to the ropes and screaming until you can hardly hear yourself think, and about this same minute everybody hears a voice going ai-lee-hihee-hoo, like a Swiss yodeller, which comes from the roof of the Brussels, and looking up what do we see but Wilbur Willard standing up there on the edge of the roof, high above the fire and smoke, and yodelling very loud.
Under one arm he has a big bundle of some kind, and under the other he has the little kid I see playing in the hall with Lillian. As he stands up there going ai-lee-hi-hee-hoo, the swell-dressed doll near us begins yipping louder than Wilbur is yodelling, and the firemen rush over under him with a life net.
Wilbur lets go another ai-lee-hi-hee-hoo, and down he comes all spraddled out, with the bundle and the kid, but he hits the net sitting down and bounces up and back again for a couple of minutes before he finally settles. In fact, Wilbur is enjoying the bouncing, and the chances are he will be bouncing yet if the firemen do not drop their hold on the net and let him fall to the ground.
Then Wilbur steps out of the net, and I can see the bundle is a rolled-up blanket with Lillian's eyes peeking out of one end. He still has the kid under the other arm with his head stuck out in front, and his legs stuck out behind, and it does not seem to me that Wilbur is handling the kid as careful as he is handling Lillian. He stands there looking at the firemen with a very sneering look, and finally he says:
'Do not think you can catch me in your net unless I wish to be caught. I am a butterfly, and very hard to overtake.'
Then all of a sudden the swell-dressed doll who is doing so much hollering, piles on top of Wilbur and grabs the kid from him and begins hugging and kissing it.
'Wilbur,' she says, 'God bless you, Wilbur, for saving my baby! Oh, thank you, Wilbur, thank you! My wretched husband kidnaps and runs away with him, and it is only a few hours ago that my detectives find out where he is.'
Wilbur gives the doll a funny look for about half a minute and starts to walk away, but Lillian comes wiggling out of the blanket, looking and smelling pretty much singed up, and the kid sees Lillian and begins hollering for her, so Wilbur finally hands Lillian over to the kid. And not wishing to leave Lillian, Wilbur stands around somewhat confused, and the doll gets talking to him, and finally they go away together, and as they go Wilbur is carrying the kid, and the kid is carrying Lillian, and Lillian is not feeling so good from her burns.
Furthermore, Wilbur is probably more sober than he ever is before in years at this hour in the morning, but before they go I get a chance to talk some to Wilbur when he is still rambling somewhat, and I make out from what he says that the first time he goes to get Lillian he finds her in his room and does not see hide or hair of the little kid and does not even think of him, because he does not know what room the kid is in, anyway, having never noticed such a thing.
But the second time he goes up, Lillian is sniffing at the crack under the door of a room down the hall from Wilbur's and Wilbur says he seems to remember seeing a trickle of something like water coming out of the crack.
'And,' Wilbur says, 'as I am looking for a blanket for Lillian, and it will be a bother to go back to my room, I figure I will get one out of this room. I try the knob but the door is locked, so I kick it in, and walk in to find the room full of smoke, and fire is shooting through the windows very lovely, and when I grab a blanket off the bed for Lillian, what is under the blanket but the kid?
'Well,' Wilbur says, 'the kid is squawking, and Lillian is merowing, and there is so much confusion generally that it makes me nervous, so I figure we better go up on the roof and let the stink blow off us, and look at the fire from there. It seems there is a guy stretched out on the floor of the room alongside an upset table between the door and the bed. He has a bottle in one hand, and he is dead. Well, naturally there is no percentage in lugging a dead guy along, so I take Lillian and the kid and go up on the roof, and we just naturally fly off like humming birds. Now I must get a drink,' Wilbur says, 'I wonder if anybody has anything on their hip?'
Well, the papers are certainly full of Wilbur and Lillian the next day, especially Lillian, and they are both great heroes.
But Wilbur cannot stand the publicity very long, because he never has any time to himself for his drinking, what with the scribes and the photographers hopping on him every few minutes wishing to hear his story, and to take more pictures of him and Lillian, so one night he disappears, and Lillian disappears with him.
About a year later it comes out that he marries his old doll, Lillian Withington-Harmon, and falls into a lot of dough, and what is more he cuts out the liquor and becomes quite a useful citizen one way and another. So everybody has to admit that black cats are not always bad luck, although I say Wilbur's case is a little exceptional because he does not start out knowing Lillian is a black cat, but thinking she is a leopard.
I happen to run into Wilbur one day all dressed up in good clothes and jewellery and chucking quite a swell.
'Wilbur,' I say to him, 'I often think how remarkable it is the way Lillian suddenly gets such an attachment for the little kid and remembers about him being in the hotel and leads you back there a second time to the right room. If I do not see this come off with my own eyes, I will never believe a cat has brains enough to do such a thing, because I consider cats extra dumb.'
'Brains nothing,' Wilbur says. 'Lillian does not have brains enough to grease a gimlet. And what is more, she has no more attachment for the kid than a jack rabbit. The time has come,' Wilbur says, 'to expose Lillian. She gets a lot of credit which is never coming to her. I will now tell you about Lillian, and nobody knows this but me.
'You see,' Wilbur says, 'when Lillian is a little kitten I always put a little Scotch in her milk, partly to help make her good and strong, and partly because I am never no hand to drink alone, unless there is nobody with me. Well, at first Lillian does not care so much for this Scotch in her milk, but finally she takes a liking to it, and I keep making her toddy stronger until in the end she will lap up a good big snort without any milk for a chaser, and yell for more. In fact, I suddenly realize that Lillian becomes a rumpot, just like I am in those days, and simply must have her grog, and it is when she is good and rummed up that Lillian goes off snatching Pekes, and acting tough generally.
'Now,' Wilbur says, 'the time of the fire is about the time I get home every morning and give Lillian her schnapps. But when I go into the hotel and get her the first time I forget to Scotch her up, and the reason she runs back into the hotel is because she is looking for her shot. And the reason she is sniffing at the kid's door is not because the kid is in there but because the trickle that is coming through the crack under the door is nothing but Scotch that is running out of the bottle in the dead guy's hand. I never mention this before because I figure it may be a knock to a dead guy's memory,' Wilbur says. 'Drinking is certainly a disgusting thing, especially secret drinking.'
'But how is Lillian getting along these days?' I ask Wilbur Willard.
'I am greatly disappointed in Lillian,' he says. 'She refuses to reform when I do, and the last I hear of her she takes up with Gregorio, the Ginney bootlegger, who keeps her well Scotched up all the time so she will lead his blonde doll's Peke a dog's life.'

Say Om - in the Thunder Road

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Cool for cats Robert Mitchum played the role of Junior Johnson in a film that has nothing to do with this
stakes race as far as I know.

On Feb 10, 2018, the $100,000 6-horse Thunder Road Stakes field is led by old pal Black Jack Cat, coming off a 2017 that saw a number of strident wins, capped by a game third in the prestigious Breeder's Cup Turf Mile. He is the favorite of most everybody today despite the considerable lag -- over 90 days -- since that outing.

But, as much as I like Black Jack Cat (3), I have an inkling old campaigner Om (6) has a chance, especially to gain a piece, which he has done regularly. When will he win again? Today could be the day. But the measures would almost all point to Black Jack.

Among the handicappers, Dan Illman and Jay Siegel seem the only ones to grant that Om could win. Siegel say he'd bet him to win, if he knew he was going to go for the lead, and not rate back.
So that is a big pace question. Whether on the lead or not, Om seems capable of being close, sharing early position with Black Jack and Bowie's Hero (2), winner of the recent G2 Matthias Bros. Mile.

My analysis sorts out 1-2-3-6 as able - and that is not far off of Brad Free, Matt Bernier, Jay Siegel, Dan Illman, or the TVG Final pace accountings. Why give weight to Om?


Look for the errors behind your mistakes but beware of rearview-mirror hindsight biases.Don’t try to justify or excuse your failures. Own them! Conduct unflinching postmortems: Where exactly did I go wrong? And remember that although the more common error is to learn too little from failure and to overlook flaws in your basic assumptions, it is also possible to learn too much (you may have been basically on the right track but made a minor technical mistake that had big ramifications). Also don’t forget to do postmortems on your successes too. Not all successes imply that your reasoning was right. You may have just lucked out by making offsetting errors. And if you keep confidently reasoning along the same lines, you are setting yourself up for a nasty surprise.” -Excerpt From Superforecasting - Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner



Tho Jack seems best, let's suggest for sake of argument that Om may be equal. What portends poorly for one and well for the other, if we face the fact that Om has not won for 2 years but has run well against very good ones?

The only knock on Jack I'd say is time off, which means questioning his form. The good augers for Om are that Om's trainer, Dan Hendrick, gets a good return on going from sprints to routes. And he gets a jockey change to Flavien Prat, who is hitting at an 18% clip. Let's do this.

 In the final analysis we hedge. Making an Om place bet. That is a place marker to assert the likliest event. Unlike with machine learning, we are not looking for the most likely event. We are looking for something unlikely, but possible. So doing exactas with both Om and Jack on top.

It being a six horse field, it seems greedy to pick more than a couple of combos. While D'Amato's Bowies Hero showed good form on an unchallenged lead in his last, has very good speed (121 Equifax), and is 4 for 6 at the distance, I will take a pass. My under selection will be Balthus's Next Share (1), whose been getting progressively faster (99-103-110), and was a mere (?) 2 lengths off of stellar Pee Wee Reese while closing well at 6 1/2 F last time in a race where Om ended up 5 L off. So I why shouldn't he be running in the vicinity of Om today? When they are sent on their way race caller will say they were off in "a good easy dispatch."

Pick: 3 and over 1 [ and 3,6]. With a place on 6.


.


Om is sent! It is his day. Gets ahead, then rates. Bests a somewhat meandering Black Jack Cat. Beats back the charge of Bowies Hero and a close and closing Next Shares, who perhaps had been too far back early.

The result is 6-2-1.

He had a near 9-length at about the half way point. And bettered any of the others coming at him late. Jack was a flat fifth.Om set fractions of 22.58, 45.75, 1:10.11 and 1:21.77. Said Prat, who rode aggressively, much as Jay Siegel may have wished: "Once he got in the lead I was able to just let him go. He had great speed and I knew that once we got on the inside he would just carry it through. He remained calm and was able to hold them off. He’s incredibly fast and I just let him work.”

They did get close. He beat Bowies Hero by a half-length, who was a slight head better than a charging Next Shares. The slight head deprived this better of a $17 exacta. Even in the small field, one more bet, would have put us ahead, this time, anyway. It was nice to see Om surpass the $1 million earnings mark.

So often the selection decision comes down to a semi-intelliegent guestimate of whether a steadily trying horse will have his day. This worked with Om today (though the betting strategy was a fail). Not long ago, in the San Marcos Stakes, a similar trust placed on Flamboyant (less likely) vs ItInThePost (more likely) was an outright flop, as it was the less likely that was flat and finished up the track, and the more likely strident in winning (tho not by marked margin). - Racetrack Romero.

Show me the chart.

How does he dance? Close, very very close.

Sometimes into Ashville, sometimes Memphis town.
The Revenuers chased him but they couldn't run him down.
Each time they thought they had him his engine would explode.
He'd go by like they were standing still on "Thunder Road".


Sixth Race Santa Anita March 4, 2018 - Play Hard To Get

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Just a quick look at a point. Turf races are often paceless. This particular optional claimer seemed very much so. In this case - and it may be anomolous for all I know - the pacelessness was pointed. The uber categories for analysis are Class, Form, Speed, and Pace. And pace may be the most amorphous and nuanced.



Looking here at the past performances of the winner and second place finisher.  In the paceless race they stood out as fairly even performers. That is: their early TimeformUS Pace ratings were not terribly slow versus the others, and neither were their Late figures.



The race was marked by an objection concerning the break by second place Jockey Nakatani, who handled his horse well enough to only miss by a head. Play Hard To Get was well handled by Jockey Raj Maragh on the lead - and he moved ahead nicely on the final turn. It has rained a lot, and the track was listed as soft, but DRF felt that it was fast as race time came around.

The winner was not hard to overlook, having failed to win in two years - but he had high speed second only to Tequila Joe, who he bested here by 4+ lengths, and his lack of success still made him a fit with this bunch. T.J. has not been dependable in the stakes ranks, and continued so in the OC ranks, where such undependably is most common. He was claimed out of this race by Mark Glatt. Good luck to him. The fact that the owner is ready to sell the horse - what kind of weight do you apply there in a heuristic?

There were horses stepping down in class, horses with speed, jockeys with hot hands - enough data to obscure a factor that may have been deciding: steady pace performance. Interest in finding speed that will get loose, or a late runner that will capitalize on hot fractions, should not be the be-all end-all strategem. Perhaps, if you predict a lack of pace, you should consider the horses with  "steady" Time Form numbers. You would like to see the future where Prince of Arabia next time out won at 35-1 too!

I'd finish by citing some comments by a panelist on an edition of the BBC's In These Times that we were listening to earlier today. The subject was Sun Tzu. Panelist said The Art of War message was: Each occasion needs to be analyzed individually, by a general with an open mind, attentive to all sorts of factors - terrain, climate, on and on. That is, using situational thinking, and even understanding the situations are constantly evolving themselves, and differently for each participant in the battle. - Racetrack Romero.


Synchrony clicks in FairGrounds Handicap

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Synchrony clicks in FairGrounds Handicap


The FairGround in New Orleans sees a sunny day with temperatures in the '70s, on Feb 17. The denizens of The Place that Care Forgot go to the track for the Risen Star feature, but have interest in other stakes too, such as the FairGround Handicap which is experiencing its thirty-second renewal. This is a turf race at about 1 1/8 m.

The favorite in the field is Mr. Misunderstood (6) who, off a long series of turf wins, including the Woodchopper Dec 30, meets older company for first time - as high weight.  [Tho weights aint what they used to be in such events.] He meets a field that comprises a mix of veteran turfers that are evenly matched in terms of speed. They are on the main either hard working or injury prone.

I have some interest in Thatcher Street (1) - I went out with a girl who lived there.  I have watched this horse stalk and lurk and make a mark in early calls, but then fall short. Thatcher Street, like several among these, might be classified a Canadian horse. Off board in last. Is ridden by Brian Hernandez. Has good speed figures but hard to tell how it will play here. Can get early lead. Has run and run and run with some good ones, but not with a lot of wins, but has hit a lot of boards. Another Canadian runner is Galton (3). He seems fit, gets Javier Catellano, may stalk the pace, what little there is of it. Campaigners  capable of similar speed include Tiz a Slam (10), One Mean Man (4).

There is pretty clear record on the above. There are some mystery horses too. Michael Stidham's Synchrony (8) (and 9-2) was Derby-headed in 2016 before a third in the Lexington, but has been off much since then. Is training well, is ridden by Joe Bravo, but has been off since May. Betting on him has much of the character of gambling. Something similar could be said for Catcho en Die (12). This one has come up from Argentina for Bill Mott who is just getting going this year, is ridden by Jon Velasquez is fresh and new and he’s had some bullets. Not having run, like Synchrony, against Collected, this horse would be an ever bigger gamble.


We take this race to boil down to seven of the 10 horses. Let's look at the seven [with some of the unclear signals highlighted in red] in a rubric.

#-Horse-Form-Speed-Distance
1-Thatcher Street- may be in good form - 91 - has won at distance
3-Galton- Form seems ok - 91 - distance may be okay
4-One Mean Man-is in form-89-can handle distance
5-Granny's Kitten-is in form-86-can do distance
6-Mr. Misunderstood- good form-91-may handle distance
8- Synchrony-may be in form -may have highest speed (could range up to 99 -much the best- if ready) - may get distance
12-Catcho En Die-form is questionable-86-distance seems okay.

The boys at the Daily Racing Form are of a mind of 8-6-12-1

Let's go with 6, 3 over 1,4, 5 (and 3,6). 

Click to watch the race. 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/fg/2018/2/17/8/fair-grounds-h-g3t

Look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem - Tedlock Commandment 5

This gives us a mix that includes the most ones that most meet criteria and a couple of chances at ones that don’t.

These days these turf races are filled to the gills, there is never much early pace, all the horses are closely bunched at the end (to me, the evenness of speed figures among these betokens such), and racing luck seems to play a role. I don't know if that actually describes the Fair Ground Handicap.

Result 8-6-10

I do know that Synchrony won. The Irish Great Wide Open vied at the start on the long stretch. Thatcher St let him have the lead, then passed nicely and seemingly in a well timed way coming into the stretch. The fractions of 23.2/47.4 and 1:12.4 to this point were decent.  Then, with everyone seemingly coming on, Mister Misunderstood and Synchrony come charging on, until Synchrony, with the quintessence of timing on Bravo's part, passes his foe in stride, winning by two.

"Certainly we were hoping for an effort like this, and we got it, but this was a plan that started way back in the summer. ... We all got together and decided to give the horse some time and it paid off," Stidham said. "We're excited to have him back in this good form and hopefully it will carry throughout the year."

There were many factors at work here. I don’t think Synchrony's true class and readiness were that obvious - successful  bettors would have; and would have gained $11 for the win, and $30 for a $2 exacta (The Trifacta was $500). I didn’t make the jump to Synchrony, and cant say much in the favor of the others I selected. The rubric didn’t cover class-which I saw as a wash. Synchrony's form was good again a few weeks later in the graded Muniz Memorial at the same distance at the same track, where he stylishly bested Arklow and others.

That aside, looking at the rubric, which didn’t include the 3rd place finisher, you see a mix of clear signals and unclear signals. The safer bet goes with the clearer signals. Good judgement on the unclear signals seems important.

Romeo has in his mind the dance of machine learning here. AI/ML may figure out what is clearly likely regularly. It may not figure out what is less clear more regularly.  - Racetrack  Romeo

After today's setback our bankroll is down to $22,007l,090.52. That would be Confederate money, of course.

As an addenda - let's take a look at Matt Berneier and Dan Illman of the DRF looking at the runup to the race.




Scanning other analysts' views is one of the traits of a superforecaster, per Tedlock. It is tough though. I have seen correct analysis rendered asunder by last minute switches based on experts' views. You find yourself when forecasting or handicapping, creating a set of guides based on a belief set. But the actual belief set is something you have to continually test against reality. Or revisit. In this case, the DRF boys were more right than I was. I shouldnt blow up my heuristic, which I am trying to developer I imagine along the lines that they have pursued, but I should be ready to tune it.
of the topic space of Epitomime I saw a brief article that led me to addend this passage. "One Question Investors Should Ask Now and Then-The answer might reveal flaws in your thought processes." by Barry Ritholtz on Business Week.

How committed are you to a belief system? Answering that question has the potential to reveal flaws in our thought processes about many things, from politics to economics to cultural issues. Whether you are committed to one big idea, or are fascinated by a variety of things might also determine how successful you are as an investor.

He refers to Superforecasting in the story, cause review of tenets is one of Superforecasting's Commandments.  Rithotz has a kind of neat blog.

It's Flamboyant in the San Francisco Mile at Golden Gate Fields

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It had been a while for Flamboyant, but the 7-year-old passed
the $1-million mark in earnings with a victory
in the San Francisco Mile on Turf at Golden Gate Fields.

Spring was in bloom and the  turf was new at Golden Gate Fields in the run-up to the $200, 000 Grade 3 San Francisco Mile on the last day of March in 2018, and speed seemed to be the strong point for several runners.

Speed - Recent Beyer ratings of 96, 97 and 95 marked runners Editore (1), Frank Conversation (2) and Syntax (3), respectively. Frank Conversation, a horse that has yet to establish his best distance, was  the morning line favorite, but the afternoon crowd showed more favoritism for Editore, Syntax and, especially, Full of Luck (10), a Chilean steed making his first run in the U.S.

With the exception of the "known unknown" - this newbie Chilean - these swift horses seemed certifiably in good or fair Form. Fast horses with questions contesting the Mile were Many Roses (11), Bird is the Word (9) and French-bred Flamboyant (7). Bird was coming off a long layoff, Many Roses was off a dull-speed effort, and Flamboyant was off a very lackluster sixth against his nemesis In the Post in a stakes at Santa Anita.

Class - The aforementioned horses ( and including Mr. Rorary (12) ) ran against some very good ones in Southern California. But none has consistently run versus the top handicap horses in S. Cal. more than Flamboyant. Could this trip up to San Francisco be the remedy for this hard running, classy - he was the high weight in the Hollywood Turf Cup in November - horse who hadn’t won in 2 years? I think that set up clues you to the final result. But let's not jump ahead. Let's instead look some at the pace factor and some of its component sub-factors, Max.

Pace - Time Form US expected Many Roses to lead early, setting a fast pace, and followed by No More Talk (6) (with not particularly notable Beyers, and off a layoff) and Mr. Roary. Syntax and Flamboyant were not in the Time Form picture early, but were marked as deep closers.

I have pretty much thrown up my hands on these turf races, when it comes to pace, as early speed and early competition generally seem lacking, and all the horses seem near at the end. A horse like Flamboyant, who has been running well mostly but failing largely to win in longer races, might benefit from the 1-mile distance. The bettors today lay off Flamboyant, who went off at $11.60 odds. But Equibase showed him as the best average speed and best average distance.

We have to admit: Flamboyant has a place in our heart. Still, we have lost with him, and there is chance this can happen again. Does a recent success by Prince of Arabia, another hard running dissapointer embolden my bet? Who knows?! Flamboyant is a price on this day because he brings so much uncertainity with him - there is a potential reward in not being the crowd favorite.

The budget is short and the bet is: 7 over 1, 2, 3. With Win and place bets on 7 as well.

The Running for the SF Mile (requires Flash)

The result is 7-1-11-3. The fractions were 22 and 3; 47 and 3; 1:11 and 1 (!), with final time of 1:36.

The $1 exacta pays $50; the win pays $25; the place payoff for the winner is $9.20. Cheers!

It had been a while for Flamboyant, trained by Patty Gallagher, but the 7-year-old passed the $1-million mark in earnings with the victory in the San Francisco Mile on Turf.

Flamboyant was 10th early as Many Roses proved TimeForm prescient by setting the pace. Flamboyant was well positioned by his jockey. Said Julien Couton: The horse was "in the garden spot all the way." If you see head-ons you see him saving steps the whole time, and running true and on the rail, seemingly losing spots on the final turn, but staying close and, as all the other big butts drift wide, sneaking-snaking moving up and past.

Editore menaced nearby at the end, and it was tense, but Flamboyant pricked up when he heard the on-coming hooves, his jockey related. Still the margin was a nose, and the margin over third-place finisher Many Roses was a neck. Very little separated Roses for two others that vied closely.

The picture for place shows it:



Horse racing is not a game of inches - it's a game of noses and necks.


Trip handicapping is much discussed - it involves finding a horse that ran well but was inhibited by traffic or unfavorable pace per his style, or passing on a horse that excelled but had no traffic or pace challenge.Flamboyant benefited from his trip today to win narrowly. I will take it. - Racetrack Romero

Addenda
Dialectical Miscellany: Do you suppose the jocks and trainers read the Time Form pace projection, just like handicappers do? How do you calculate how they will point counter point react?

Rating the predictors: DRF's Dan Illman picks Frank Conversation and Matt Bernier picks Flamboyant.

The Chart for the SF Mile

Superforecaster mutterings:
Understanding that we come to the decision making process with some embedded bias - a point of view - is crucial to making good choices. Nate Silver at Gartner data conference per reporter Jack Vaughan, 2014. 

Fire Away in the Danger's Hour Stakes, 2018

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Fire Away is in the Red Hat and Black Silks running 6th at this point.

“Often - remarkably good probability estimates arise from a remarkably crude series of assumptions.” - Excerpt From Superforecasting Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner


This was a nicely formful race: The Danger's Hour Stakes at 1m on the turf ran Apr 8, 2018 for a $100,000 purse. It was a case where some simple assumptions based on analysis of basic elements (and subsets) played out in the actual runing.

Several accomplished horses used this for their first out for the new season - notably Mo Town and Projected. They had the highest Beyers, somewhat surpassing Conquest Pantera and Fire Away. The projection was for Macgone (who won the last two editions of this race), Hit it and Secretary at War to take the lead, and that is pretty much how it went, although Motown was right in the early mix.

Being off a layoff, Mo Town may have been especially keen to run.  While the horse failed in last year's Derby preps and was a bit up and down and on and off, he'd seemed to come into his own at the end of last season. If we were to adjudge that Conquest Pantera's and Fire Away's speed numbers were recent, and that Projected* and Mo Town's were from last season ...

Conquest Pantera and Fire Away would have an edge today, and that was partially true. Late running Fire Away took the Danger's Hour, paying $6.10, while Conk Pantera trailed in 5th (tho the horse missed obtaining a better position by a slim margin.) Either Projected of Mo Town would seem to be capable of better on their next out. Conquest Pantera too could do well next out, although he has yet to find a natural distance.

How will Fire Away do next out? Only the Shadow knows. But it was nice to see Claude Shug McGaughey III win with familiar black and red colors of the Ogden Phipps' stable on this bright spring day. He has won quite a few races in his time, and he is pretty universally admired for doing right by the horse, whichever it may be. ( Did you say won many? He recently surpassed the 2,000-win mark. He has won nine Breeder Cup races, three Travers, three Jockey Club Gold Cups, and on and on.) Anytime he runs them, you have to look at his horses.

It might be self-serving to let drop that I contributed today's winnings to the Permanently Disabled Jockey Fund Telethon. But wow.. I got to talk to Jose Ortiz, who was manning a phone. I told him how much I appreciated his riding, how exciting it is particularly when he competes against his brother Irad, and wished him good luck this year. - Racetrack Caesar Romero.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20180408&RN=8

Related
See a consideration of The Artie Shiller Stakes for 2017

*Subtextual consideration (one not immideately obvious in data) : Projected trainer Chad Brown is known for easing horses in after layoff.



Ramblings, and What a View The American, Race 8 at Santa Anita, April 2018

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Had a chance recently to read some blog posts on machine learning exercises related to horse race handicapping.* It's a natural thing for grad students to do - search for a problem that may win friends and influence people.

The connection between horse racing and machine learning is natural. There is plenty of data to work with, a clear interest in prediction, and races - even the worst of races - have certifiable winners.

The student write-ups cite the usual machine learning painpoint - how much time and effort is required to normalize that data and the difficulties in correlating the different  variables.

If in the matters to be examined we come to a step in the series of which our understanding is not sufficiently well able to have an intuitive cognition, we must stop short there. We must make no attempt to examine what follows; thus we shall spare ourselves superfluous labour. - Descartes

What the researchers quickly alight upon is how good the crowd is at finding the winner - and how that mere fact makes the undertaking unprofitable. Your algorithm has to do  than more than pick the likely winners - it has to pick the unlikely winners. The machine learners that succeed in handicapping still lose money overall - because the price on their winning picks fail to offset their losers.

There already are statistical methods out there that quantize much of the data on horses. It might be useful for the students to take those for givens, and focus on one especially vexome area for their machine learning test. Pace might be such a place.

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Epitomime has focused on four areas of handicapping: class, speed, form and pace. The last two seem particularly hard to master. For the analysis exercise for The American Stakes, a $100,000 Grade 3, 1 mile event on the turf at Santa Anita (Race 8 on Apr. 21, 2018), the focus was on the pace. I think I have some familiarity with some of these horses - having seen them both win and lose does enforce some small amount of objectivity. So I will give shorter shrift to class and speed and form, or look at these with a special emphasis on pace.



Proven 7-year-old campaigner and old-fave Manilla line progeny What a View (2) has post position and speed to get a jump on these. If back class surfaces he could steal this mile race. Black Jack Cat (5) and Sawyer Hill (6) should track, as with others. Again, as with What a View, it is a case of trusting back class to pick Black Jack Cat over Sawyer Hill (stepping up) or the others. A particular possibility is Kenjistorm (9) who has raced with several of these, who may be said to be formful, but who may not have proved himself at this level as compared to WaV and BJC.  BJC had a great string of victories in 2018, topped by a fantastic third on Breeders Cup Day. The lone late runner in the group has some prospect in that it's expected to be a fast (and possibly contested) pace up front. The lone latter is Colonist (3) who has merely beat the likes of Milton Freewater but who has some miraculously improved numbers of late,  has a late kick and gains the services of Drayden Van Dyke.

The wager is: 2, 5 over 2, 3, 5. Win, 5; Place 2. (These latter bets serving as place markers to force bread crumb evidence of selectivity and establish which horse we thought most likely to win. The crowd gave the nod to Black Jack Cat too, sending him off at even money.)



The result: 2-3-5-9. Paying $40.20 for a $1 exacta. And $7.80 to show (and missing the Win payoff of $14.20.)

The Kenneth Black-trained What a View took the early lead, the others pressed, but not too menacingly. What a View ran so nicely on the turns! And, tho Colonist made up ground and came on well, What a View won by a neck in 1:33 and 4 for the mile. What a View's jockey Steward Elliot - he of the New England accent that harkens back to his and our early Suffolk Downs days (when Dan Bertucci[?] would call him 'Stuey" -- rode him masterfully. Setting the trainer's preferred half-mile fraction of 46 (actually 46 and 2). Black Jack Cat "weakened some" along the way, and did not seem to have his 2018 fire -- yet. Clearly, it wasn’t just ''pace'' that led to What a View's inclusion among selections by this "machine learner," or his win in the real world.. but it did run on the ground as it seemed to look on the paper. -- Racetrack Romeo

What a View increases his lead on the far turn
in The America, April 21 at Santa Anita.

The aftermath of the race saw winning trainer Kenny Black just about in tears during post-race interview with Britany Eurton. Tears of joy, one guesses, and pride in a horse that endeavors.

"Where are you going next?" she asked, referring to the horse's next outing of course. He couldnt really answer such a base question, then comically shrugged.

"To the bank, I guess," said Black. I thought him sporting and, as I said, truly tearfully appreciative of the horse and the jockey, too.

All particularly poignant on a day marred by two equine fatalities in stakes - old faithful Bullard's Alley at Keenland and young turk Ten Blessings at Santa Anita. Mis-steps always lurk.

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Memorable was the pre-race interview between Eurton and Black, where she asked the question always asked, "what did you tell the jockey?"

While he can talk to them for days about the horse, Blacker said, he never gives strategy instructions to the jockeys. Why?

"The good ones don't need them, and the bad ones can't follow them."


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* I'd have liked to have used an analogy here based around the individual generally described as the first programmer -- that is, Ada Lovelace -- but a Wired story has convinced me that, while Ada played the horses, the idea that she used Differential Machine match to predict outcomes is likely conjecture.

Racing!



Watch the video while you follow Chart: http://www.drf.com/race-results/tracks/SA/country/USA/date/04-21-2018



Heart to Heart in Makers Mile

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Heart to Heart led all the way, winning The Makers Mile by 1 3/4 L.


If your local weatherman tells you that there is a 40% chance of rain tomorrow one way to interpret that is that in 40% of his simulations a storm developed and in the other 60%, using Just slightly different initial parameters, it did not.

So writes Nate Silver. It somehow reminds me of handicapping, or at least the analysis that went into a bet on The Makers Mile - the Ninth Race at Keenland at 1 M on the Turf on Apr 13, 2018.That's because there was one pretty probable (but not absolutely probable) outcome possible, and many numerous less like likely (but certainly possible) outcomes that could be visualized.


The truth would be in the dynamic effect of many little initial parameters. So let's take a look.

If short of cosmically stellar, the line up in the race was pretty interesting - with U.S and Canadian turf milers like Ballagh Rocks (2), Forge(3), Tower of Texas(4), Frostmourne(5), Heart to Heart(6), Mr. Misunderstood(7), Next Shares(8), Om(9), and Hogy(10) on hand. Heart to Heart was logical favorite with a morning line of 2-1 that one would expect to come down,

Briefly, Ballagh Rocks was off a long layoff, Forge had run close to the best, Tower of Texas had potential to get a piece but had a long campaign, Frostmoure was fresh tho short on figs. Mr. Misunderstood nice but had a long campaign, Next Shares had run with the best, Om had a long campaign, Hogy is a tough horse but nine years old but - had a long campaign. Hadn't Heart to Heart been running at restful intervals but pretty straight through in what could also be called a long campaign? There wasn’t much other knock to lay on him given the race circumstances.

In one basic event scenario, the most likely event for me would be for Heart to Heart to beat Om, or vice versa. But there was a fair number of horses (let's call them The Pack) that could be very close and there was some chance that the battle between Om and Heart to Heart could negatively affect the prospects for both or either.

The chance that one or the other in The Pack could win at a price was inviting. The major criteria I chose in selecting among these was freshness and consistent steady running style. I am not sure what kind of a pace favors such - I know a blistering pace is said to favor a strong closer type. What kind of pace favors those among a stalking Pack? I looked for value with Frostmorne and Forge. But thought of it as a guess. Couldn’t pick all of them. And there didn’t seem much to separate some.

The bet was 5 over 3, 6 8 10. With a tri box of 3-5-6.

Wouldn’t you know but that is what the trackside announcer alit upon? And the TVG ML guy. And the crowd. And Frostmourne was bet way down.. from 10-1 to 7-2, not much more at post time than Heart to Heart, a noble and accomplished campaigner and just off his first Grade 1 victory.



Yes, Heart to Heart gamely led all the way and 'held sway' in the final stages, winning by 1 3/4 L. Ballagh Rocks flattened in a late drive, and led three other horses by 1/2  L. Forge, Om and Frostmore -- (sounds like a law firm) -- with a mere two noses and a head separating them. There might have been a tri in there for me if I hadn’t bailed on Om, had seen the class of Ballagh, or if Forge and Frostmorne had endeavored to finish a 1/2 length or a head or so better. Looking back, freshness did not seem a particular benefit. I did correctly bypass a few.

As I said, the truth would be found in the dynamic effect of many little initial parameters. If we were to read on in Sliver (remember the start of this post?) we'd find that the experience and acuity of the forecasters fills in blanks in picking a pattern out of the possible weather outcomes. (It takes local knowledge, such as, if the wind blows from this direction the morning fog on the bay will linger.) Elsewhere there we find that human forecasters add 30%+ to the ultimate success of the computer estimate. Life is about filling in (successfully) the blanks.

A Win bet saver on Heart to Heart helped, as he ended up going off at a rich 3-1. When you play with Probability in its gradations you play with a tough taskmaster.

And the weather in Lexington, Kentucky? The buds were busting, the air was sweet and strange. And the crowd? Over 28,000 were on hand to see Heart to Heart go over $1.9 M in earnings. -Romero Racetracko

 http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=KEE&CTY=USA&DATE=20180413&RN=9

This is tomorrow calling - Derby Prognistigator Function Call

Justify this ... Black Swan with legs?

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Before taking a page out of The Black Swan, a look at the 2017 Kentucky Derby, the most analyzed of races of the year. Then we will see what the Swan said.

Let's look at the 2018 Kentucky Derby and prognostications that preceded it.  With 20 starters it was a laborious line up to run through. Analysis threw out horses like old french fries. Rain would pour in buckets. The pick here was Chad Brown's two-year old champion Good Magic on top, with Justify (defensively) showing up in a top three list that included Bold'or, who'd battled in some tough Califronian confrontations.

The consensus favorite in the Derby was undefeated Justify. And he did not disappoint.

Certainly has greatness, though the final time of 4:04 doesn’t really show it. Rain did not diminish, and may actually have helped, his effort. His speed was the best, and it carried -- he looked like he might get caught coming down the stretch, but he stayed in top gear and  won by 2 1/2  L.

Coming in, lack of experience was his only fault. That and the Curse of Apollo - which undefeated Magnum Moon shared.

Well now he has laid that one to rest - has shown that his talent is exceptional. As great as he was today, he had a great team in his corner, ones that at any step along the way could have mishandled Justify, even if ever so slightly. Jockey Mike Smith confirmed his enduring talent, as did Trainer Bob Bafferet who, in post race interview, clearly showed humility and some nervousness - maybe he had began to contemplate another Triple Crown run.



Myths Justify exposed included: The Curse of Apollo - Justify (like Magnum Moon) had been unraced at 2 - and no Derby winnder was unraced at 2 since Apollo, in 1882.

In the runnup to the veent, very few of the top handicappers did not judge Justify a worthy favoite. Some took partial positions against him, using betting logic, on the chance he might have needed more racing experience, to hedge against him.

Among the handicappers who picked him unequivocally on top were Jeff Siegel and Andy Beyer - my respect for Siegel's judgment continues to grow. I am more familiar with Beyer, and I 've seen Beyer pick wrong so many times in the Derby that I can't loudly cheer his pick on this one. Dave Lifton picked the top two "for multirace wagers." Andy Serling came up with Good Magic, Justify ("defensively") and Bold-oro, which may have influenced Racetrack Romero's ultimate selection.

The chart shows the final order was Justify, Good Magic, Audible.  Followed by Instilled Regard and My Boy Jack. Bold D'oro packed it in at the 1mile pole in my view. Those literally pulling up the rear inlcuded the notables Magumn Moon and Mendlesohn the latter of which was thrashed at the starting scrum and checked at the first turn. Betting Forensics: Eacta's remain easier to hit than trifectas. Installed Regards's gutsy 4th made a Superfecta of a lush $19,000+. A Place on Good Magic paid better than a Win on Justify. -Takeaway: Take both sides of a likely fair exacta and enjoy the ride. -   Randy "Racetrack" Romero.







Jockey comments ala Brisnet:

Instilled Regard, Drayden Van Dyke. "Got slammed at the start ... had a good run down the lane."

My Boy Jack - Kent Desormeaux : At the 3/8ths pole horses stopped in front of him. He could have been thrid. (Hofburg's Irad Ortiz Jr. and other jocks chimed in 'horses backed up in front of me and we had nowhere to go. He got stopped cold."

Bolt D.Oro Victor Espinoza : I had a great trip I just didnt have enough horse to run with them. I was pretty much done at the half mile pole. (Romeo says: Maybe his many battles have taken the starch out.)

Ricardo Santana, Comatant -He never really hanlded the kickback


This race is known for  a  mix of some modest some substantial exotics. What were the payoffs?

7-JUSTIFY .......................... 7.806:004:40
6-GOOD MAGIC .............. 9.206.60
5-Audible ..........................5.80


The $2 exacta paid $69.60. The 50-cent Trifecta paid $70.70

 The Superfecta paid $19,600+ And The Pick 3 paid $3,200+


Black Swan is a book with a voice that has a weird chortle. That is courtesy of author Nasim Taleb. The author at times is like the brilliant movie professor who might turn out turn out to be mad - he goes on and on, and the audience is gradually clued in. He makes good points on the limits on the limits of prediction however. 
Black Swan points out Major Errors in Prediction
a-The error of confirmation - we look for what confirms our knowledge but not our ignorance. [In the Derby, we don’t expect horses with just 3 races, only one, a Stakes, and who haven't faced as many horses in their whole career as they will on this day to not feel the butterflies.  
b-the narrative fallacy - we fool ourselves with stories or anecdotes (when there really isn’t such a narrative) [The curse of Apollo makes for an easy to understand story. The 2 year old foundataion has been part of Derby Lore. Most top handicapper's dismissed the Curse outright. But now it is out the window for everyone. 
c-Emotions get in the way of our inference. The 2 year old champion coming back story. The battle tested Californian. These may have swayed us. The suddenly indomitable big horse - that story would have worked.


On another note. Here is another very good race from the day previous.. the 2018 Kentucky Oaks, won by Monomy Girl.

Happy Valley Triple Trio Tales in Business Week

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Discussed here is Bill Benter - he of a fabled Hong Kong Happy Valley track betting syndicate - the one reputed to have made the - or one of the - biggest killings of all time, and then not cashed in.

Coming out of a famed card counting Black Jack coteries of the '70s, Benter set out with computers and pooled financial resources to beat the horse racing game.  A difficult exotic called the Triple Trio was his Holy Grail.

In November 2001, he decided to have a final punt on the Triple Trio. Benter had avoided major prizes since 1997 for fear of angering the Jockey Club’s management, but this jackpot was too big to resist.

It was in fact $118 million.  But how did he get there?

His path was not altogether much different than others' - he followed the life-long study of probability. He studied and gave mathematical weights to the variables the contributed to a racing horse's measure. Like other he came up with his own 'true' estimate of the correct odds on a horse, and watched for underlays as the horses approached the post.

What made Benter and his team different was their willingness to bet great amounts of money on many many races, riding out their predictive mistakes, and waiting for the big score. As an example, Benter bet  HK$1.6 million on 51,000 combinations to finally hit the winning combination.

I guess the motto is 'don’t try this at home'.

There's a lot in Benter's methodology that is mirrored in most handicapping how-tos. Study the variables, track their  ultimate influence, assign odds, watch for the crowd's activity to diverge from those odds. Handle bankroll consistently whether going up or going down. Wager aggressively.

It is in this last point that I think it is fair to say Benter diverges from the usual. As a syndicate I think it is fair to say Benter was in a position to bet very heavily and to profit on smaller per race returns than the individual horse player. The value play for the  usual player starts, I think, at about 6- or 7-1.

They need even higher to offset the track vigorish, and to compensate for inevitable inabilities to precisely predict the future.

(And what about that big payoff, the one that went unredeemened? Well, the reason he did not cash in the ticket is, perhaps not suprisingly, not reasonably explained in an otherwise marvelous story.)

Read:The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code- BW, May 2018

Also: Check out this YouTube lecture by Benter, (below)  which in the first half is a properly erudite review of the history of the connection -n between gambling, math and probability, followed in the second half with consideration of the elements that go into plotting the values of thoroughbreds and the likely outcomes of their races.



PDF version of the PPT that accompanied Benter's 2014 presentation


Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems
www.cms.zju.edu.cn/UploadFiles/AttachFiles/20054191750380.ppt
Apr 19, 2005 - How gambling inspired the scientific study of probability .... Benter, William F., “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering ...
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