“Buy the rumor and sell the news.” - Anonymous
“It would seem there is a specific reason behind every day’s market action, or at least journalists think so.” – Norman “Fearless” Fossback (Stockmarket Logic)
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What role does news play in markets? Norman Fossback writes that it is hard to say. But he suggests there are factors that determine the impact of a news event on stock prices.
These factors include an event’s financial significance and the extent to which an event deviates dramatically from market expectation. In other words, stock perturbations reflect more the event’s relational to the market’s expectations, than to the actual news.
Different events can have different degrees by which their impact can be efficiently incorporated into stock pricing. For example, catalyzing activity in the supply chain of soy is hard to measure or time.
Which brings us to the week now passed -- It was not all about the news, until the end, when it was.
There has been a somewhat steeply inclined downslide in the works, as discussed in our blog post SHIFTING TRADE EXPECTATIONS GIVE PAUSE– – this week’s S&P decline of 1.32% follows skinny dips last week and the week before and the week before… with the trend on May 31 (Day 104) having the gauge at +9.8% for the year-to-date (the whole trend being basically up since last December’s house cleaning) tho down from a high on day 85 of +17.5% for year.
There was a decline along the week, but an actual mini-rush for the exits on Friday, when the Dow dropped 300 points because (President?) Trump tweeted his plan to slap tariffs on Mexico (just basically for the hell of it). A fascinating backdrop to these Tweets is found in Trump's former brief career as a NY Tab publicist and Wall St. stock tout.
Some headlines:
*Trump’s Tariff Threat Rattles Markets and Prompts Outcry
*American farmers, affected by both the trade war and surging floodwaters, are facing an uncertain year.
*As China Takes Aim, Silicon Valley Braces for Pain
*President Trump’s decision to punish Mexico with tariffs sent stock prices sliding
*New Tariffs Against Mexico Signal the U.S. Isn’t a Reliable Negotiating Partner
*Wall Street is betting the president won't let stocks collapse
Let’s look at two political ends of the rich folk spectrum.
Said Michael Bloomberg:
Said the WSJ August Editorial Board, after pointing to His Nibs’ good traits as a tax reformer and deregulator :
TO COME: Discussion upon Financial Significance and Market Expectation in relation to Event.
More from the WSJ: “The best scenarios is that this tariff threat is Mr. Trump’s familiar bluster… stock arkets fell only about -1.4% which suggests investors also think Mr. Trump will walk back from the ledge.” Says BB: That ship sailed.
Related links
https://www.macrotrends.net/2490/sp-500-ytd-performance
Final thoughts:
Wall Street is betting the president won't let stocks collapse - what about the options player?
Tariff tweet - Why now? Why Thursday? Why at 10 o’ clock or whenever? To do: Call a retired Broadway Flack/Stock Tout and see what they say.]
Week ending May 31 2019
Stocks
S.&P. 5002,752.06|| –36.80 ||–1.32%
Dow24,815.04||–354.84 || –1.41%
Nasdaq7,453.15 || –114.57 || –1.51%
Bonds
3-month2.35%–0.0065
2-year1.92%–0.0199
5-year1.92%–0.0131
10-year2.13%–0.0088
30-year2.57%–0.0123
Commodities
Crude Oil53.36 || –$3.23 || –5.71%
Natural Gas2.46 || –$0.08 || –3.26%
Gold 1305 ||18.43 || 1.43%
Europe
FTSE 1007,161.71 || -56.45 || -0.78%
“It would seem there is a specific reason behind every day’s market action, or at least journalists think so.” – Norman “Fearless” Fossback (Stockmarket Logic)
What role does news play in markets? Norman Fossback writes that it is hard to say. But he suggests there are factors that determine the impact of a news event on stock prices.
These factors include an event’s financial significance and the extent to which an event deviates dramatically from market expectation. In other words, stock perturbations reflect more the event’s relational to the market’s expectations, than to the actual news.
Different events can have different degrees by which their impact can be efficiently incorporated into stock pricing. For example, catalyzing activity in the supply chain of soy is hard to measure or time.
Which brings us to the week now passed -- It was not all about the news, until the end, when it was.
There has been a somewhat steeply inclined downslide in the works, as discussed in our blog post SHIFTING TRADE EXPECTATIONS GIVE PAUSE– – this week’s S&P decline of 1.32% follows skinny dips last week and the week before and the week before… with the trend on May 31 (Day 104) having the gauge at +9.8% for the year-to-date (the whole trend being basically up since last December’s house cleaning) tho down from a high on day 85 of +17.5% for year.
There was a decline along the week, but an actual mini-rush for the exits on Friday, when the Dow dropped 300 points because (President?) Trump tweeted his plan to slap tariffs on Mexico (just basically for the hell of it). A fascinating backdrop to these Tweets is found in Trump's former brief career as a NY Tab publicist and Wall St. stock tout.
Some headlines:
*Trump’s Tariff Threat Rattles Markets and Prompts Outcry
*American farmers, affected by both the trade war and surging floodwaters, are facing an uncertain year.
*As China Takes Aim, Silicon Valley Braces for Pain
*President Trump’s decision to punish Mexico with tariffs sent stock prices sliding
*New Tariffs Against Mexico Signal the U.S. Isn’t a Reliable Negotiating Partner
*Wall Street is betting the president won't let stocks collapse
Let’s look at two political ends of the rich folk spectrum.
Said Michael Bloomberg:
“The administration plans to harm businesses north and south of the border, and to impose additional new taxes on U.S. consumers, not to remedy a real or imagined trade grievance but to force Mexico to curb migration to the U.S.”
Said the WSJ August Editorial Board, after pointing to His Nibs’ good traits as a tax reformer and deregulator :
“…out of the blue late Thursday Mr. Trump announced escalating tariffs of up to 25% on U.S. imports from Mexico for alleged sins … Mr. Trump has come to view tariffs as a blunt-force tool to achieve any diplomatic goal…. Senate Republicans need to get off their sedan chairs and send this President a message on trade or they may be in the minority in 2021.” [Ed. Note: That ships sailed.]……..
TO COME: Discussion upon Financial Significance and Market Expectation in relation to Event.
More from the WSJ: “The best scenarios is that this tariff threat is Mr. Trump’s familiar bluster… stock arkets fell only about -1.4% which suggests investors also think Mr. Trump will walk back from the ledge.” Says BB: That ship sailed.
Related links
https://www.macrotrends.net/2490/sp-500-ytd-performance
Final thoughts:
Wall Street is betting the president won't let stocks collapse - what about the options player?
Tariff tweet - Why now? Why Thursday? Why at 10 o’ clock or whenever? To do: Call a retired Broadway Flack/Stock Tout and see what they say.]
Week ending May 31 2019
Stocks
S.&P. 5002,752.06|| –36.80 ||–1.32%
Dow24,815.04||–354.84 || –1.41%
Nasdaq7,453.15 || –114.57 || –1.51%
Bonds
3-month2.35%–0.0065
2-year1.92%–0.0199
5-year1.92%–0.0131
10-year2.13%–0.0088
30-year2.57%–0.0123
Commodities
Crude Oil53.36 || –$3.23 || –5.71%
Natural Gas2.46 || –$0.08 || –3.26%
Gold 1305 ||18.43 || 1.43%
Europe
FTSE 1007,161.71 || -56.45 || -0.78%